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Early H1N1 Vaccination Saves Lives, Cuts Costs: Study
Date:10/5/2009

elated deaths," she said.

U.S. health officials have said they expect 45 million doses of injectable vaccine to be ready by late October. Supplies will increase weekly, with 190 million doses by year's end. There is no way to know if enough people will get their shots in time to maximize the life-saving and cost-saving benefits, researchers say.

Dr. Thomas A. Farley, New York City health commissioner and co-author of an accompanying journal editorial, said that "the benefit of this and other models is that they allow policymakers to weigh different policy decisions and test their potential impact."

But a limitation of models is that many real-world variables cannot be completely captured, which leads to uncertainty in the prediction, Farley said. "The greatest specific benefit of the Khazeni models is to demonstrate that, under some assumptions, early vaccination can greatly blunt an epidemic of influenza even if the vaccine efficacy is relatively low," he said.

Though the new H1N1 vaccine looks effective, it may be less effective than some other vaccines, Farley said. "One specific implication of this model is that, if we achieve high vaccination rates, this vaccine should have a very good population-wide benefit nonetheless."

Because initial shipments of the H1N1 vaccine are small, experts predict that most states will reserve early vaccination for children and for health-care workers, who will need to care for those who get sick. It's expected to be mid-October before inoculations are in full swing.

At the outset, doctors, clinics and drug stores won't have much notice of how many doses to expect, which will make advance scheduling difficult, experts predict.

In another flu study, Khazeni and colleagues applied the same modeling techniques to the virulent H5N1, or avian flu, virus. Their conclusion: The government needs to stockpile vaccines and antiviral drugs, such as Tamiflu, in preparatio
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