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Company stock prices before public announcements of oncology trial results
Date:9/26/2011

Prior knowledge of phase III clinical trials of new drugs and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory decisions may affect the price of a drug company's stock according to a study published September 26 in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

Regulatory decisions made by the FDA and phase III clinical trials are important for the financial success of new drugs. Investors with information on the trial results and FDA decisions before they are released to the public may profit regardless of the drug's success or failure. This information can also influence the market value of the companies that bring the drugs to market. Trial investigators, company employees, and outside consultants are aware of trials results before they are made public, and investment analysts may go to great lengths to obtain this "insider information" for their clients because the results are not necessarily reflected in the market price of a stock.

To determine what kind of impact prior knowledge of clinical results may have had on a company's market value and stock prices of particular drugs, Allan S. Detsky, M.D., Ph.D., and colleagues did a retrospective analysis of stock prices of publicly traded biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies before and after key public announcements made between January 2000 and January 2009 regarding 23 positive and 36 negative phase III clinical trials in which their cancer drug was tested and from 41 positive and nine negative FDA regulatory decisions. They obtained stock prices from the Center for Research in Security Prices and Bloomberg Professional. The researchers then analyzed each company's daily closing stock price before and after the date of a public announcement.

The researchers found that the average stock price of a drug 120 days before a phase III clinical trial announcement showed an increase of 13.7% for companies that reported positive trials and a decrease of 0.7% percent for comp
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Contact: Zack Rathner
jncimedia@oxfordjournals.org
301-841-1286
Journal of the National Cancer Institute
Source:Eurekalert

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