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Climatic variations influence the emergence of cholera in Africa
Date:9/5/2007

of new cases of cholera first to the global climate variability index and then to monthly rainfall readings between 1989 and 1994. For that period, a frequency of epidemic occurrence of 2 to 3 years was indicated for the countries studied, except for the Ivory Coast. A significant correlation was also observed between the IOI and the annual rainfall regime for these same four countries. Furthermore, analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall between 1975 and 1996 indicated the existence of a 3 to 5year long cycle in the appearance of the disease for the whole of the areas covered by the study. The IOI and volume of precipitation are therefore two climatic variables that appear to be strongly correlated with the appearance of epidemic foci of cholera. The latter usually develop during seasonal periods but their rhythm period can also exceed the annual cycle (between 2 to 5 years). In other words, indirect relationships between climatic variations or variations in rainfall volume and emergence of foci of infection can persist for several years. These results agree with those obtained previously in Bangladesh and South America.

Over the coming years, the results of this research work should contribute to the creation of an early warning system that takes climatic parameters into account for prediction of cholera epidemic dynamics. That should facilitate the organization of prevention actions, such as drinking water filtration schemes, and the planning of care provision for people by supplying medical kits and rehydration kits. This kind of approach could also be applied to the understanding and prevention of other climate-sensitive illnesses such as malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases.


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Contact: Gregory Flechet
fichesactu@paris.ird.fr
33-014-803-7607
Institut de Recherche Pour le Dveloppement
Source:Eurekalert

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