Navigation Links
Climate may increase heat-related deaths by 2050s, says Mailman School of PH study
Date:9/27/2007

While some uncertainty does exist in climate projections and future health vulnerability, overall increases in heat-related premature mortality are likely by the 2050s, according to a recent study by Columbia Universitys Mailman School of Public Health and soon to be published in the November 2007 issue of the American Journal of Public Health. In metropolitan New York, researchers estimate a 47 percent to 95 percent increase in summer heat-related deaths when compared to the 1990s.

Recent reports strongly suggest that both emissions and warming trends will continue to affect the atmosphere into the 21st century, with annual average temperatures for the region in the 2050s projected to rise by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit to 6.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and summer temperature increasing 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit to 7.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

These new results indicate that climate change will put additional stress on the health of New York residents in the absence of concerted efforts to reduce vulnerability to heat waves, says Patrick Kinney ScD, associate professor of Environmental Health Sciences at the Mailman School of Public Health, who designed and directed the study. The research findings also indicate that urban counties will experience greater numbers of deaths than less-urbanized counties. Currently, counties experiencing the hottest summers are the highly urbanized counties in and around New York City, which also have the greatest population density. Millions of residents are already exposed to periodic summer heat stress, which can lead to increases in heat-related illness and premature deaths. Cities such as New York may be at particular risk from climate change because the urban heat island effect further increases regional temperatures, and some communities in densely populated urban centers are among those most vulnerable to heat.

The relatively large percentage of households who live in poverty or in older residential neighborhoods in New York City where multifamily rental buildings often do not haveair conditioning may enhance urban population vulnerability to heat stress, says Kim Knowlton, DrPH, assistant clinical professor of Environmental Health Sciences, science fellow on global warming and health at the Natural Resources Defense Council, and first author. Although temperatures are projected to warm considerably in the urban core by the 2050s, our global-to-regional model results suggest that the greatest increases in mean daily temperatures relative to the 1990s will occur in the nonurban counties well beyond the city limits of the five boroughs of New York City.

The diverse urban population of New York includes millions of residents aged 65 years and older or with cardiovascular or respiratory illness, risk factors that increase vulnerability to summer heat stress. With the aging of the baby boomers, the proportion of the U.S. population aged 65 years and older is expected to increase until 2020, placing additional millions among those most vulnerable to heat stress. Because this study did not factor in the future growth in population that is projected for New York City and which will expose even more New Yorkers to sweltering summer heat, it can be argued that the population constant method provides a conservative projection of possible future climate-related changes in temperature-related mortality, noted Dr. Knowlton.


'/>"/>

Contact: Stephanie Berger
sb2247@columbia.edu
212-305-4372
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Trees to Predict Climate Change
2. Manmohan Singh to Meet UN Chief, Discuss Climate Change
3. A Timely Reminder Of Devastating Health Impact Of Climate Change
4. Impact of Climate Change in Africa
5. Climate Sceptics Issued With Challenge by a U.K Scientist
6. Climate Change can Raise Incidence of Disease: Expert
7. Penguin: an Alternative Bio-indicator to Monitor Climate Change
8. Latest IPCC Report Highlights Need for Integrated Climate/human Behavior Models
9. Kolkata, Mumbai to Face Maximum Brunt of Climate Change
10. Climate Change Threatens Sundarbans and World Heritage Sites
11. Experts Congregate for UN Climate Summit in Bangkok
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... June 26, 2016 , ... Pixel Film Studios Released ProSlice Levels, a ... can give their videos a whole new perspective by using the title layers ... Film Studios. , ProSlice Levels contains over 30 Different presets to choose from. ...
(Date:6/26/2016)... ... June 26, 2016 , ... ... have been diagnosed with endometriosis. These women need a treatment plan to not ... comprehensive approach that can help for preservation of fertility and ultimately achieving a ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... The temporary closing of Bruton Memorial Library ... City Observer , brings up a new, often overlooked aspect of head lice: the parasite’s ... for fumigation is not a common occurrence, but a necessary one in the event that ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... ... June 25, 2016 , ... As a lifelong Southern Californian, Dr. ... his M.D from the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA. He trained in ... to complete his fellowship in hematology/oncology at the UCLA-Olive View-Cedars Sinai program where he ...
(Date:6/25/2016)... Montreal, Canada (PRWEB) , ... June 25, 2016 , ... ... the pursuit of success. In terms of the latter, setting the bar too high ... low, risk more than just slow progress toward their goal. , Research from ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016 Research and Markets has announced ... report to their offering. ... a favourable commercial environment for MedImmune to enter. The US ... will serve to drive considerable growth for effective anti-influenza medications. ... cap sales considerably, but development is still in its infancy. ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. , June 23, 2016 ... 9:00 a.m. CST on Thursday, July 7, 2016 , , ... kayla.belcher@frost.com ) , , , , EXPERT PANELISTS:  ... Sciences, Nitin Naik; Senior Industry Analyst, Christi Bird; Senior Industry Analyst, ... The global pharmaceutical industry is witnessing ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... , June 23, 2016  Astellas today announced the establishment of Astellas Farma Colombia (AFC), a new affiliate ... in Latin America . ... ... ... ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: