Navigation Links
Behavior change may have the greatest influence on waves of influenza outbreak: McMaster study
Date:7/9/2013

Hamilton, ON (July 9, 2013) - Three waves of the deadliest influenza pandemic in history, known as the Spanish flu, hit England and Wales in 1918, just as World War 1 was coming to an end.

Why flu arrives in multiple waves like this is the focus of a study by McMaster University researchers who discovered three contributing factors: the closing and opening of schools, temperature changes and most importantly changes in human behavior.

"We found all three factors were important in 1918 but that behavioural responses had the largest effect," said David Earn, an investigator with the Michael G. DeGroote Institute for Infectious Disease Research, and a professor in McMaster's Department of Mathematics and Statistics.

The study appears in the July 10 online issue of the Proceedings of the Royal Society.

The researchers did not measure behavioural change directly; instead, their model showed that the three waves could only be explained if people reduced infectious contact rates when recent influenza mortality was high. Possible mechanisms include avoiding large gatherings, keeping distance from other people, and hand-washing.

The study's findings are significant as global health officials keep watch on an emerging virus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which is said to be more deadly than Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and has already spread from Saudi Arabia to France, Germany, Italy and Britain. Dr. Margaret Chan, director-general of the World Health Organization, has called MERS a "threat to the entire world".

To investigate factors underlying the three-wave shape of the 1918 influenza epidemic, McMaster researchers developed what they describe as a simple epidemic model. It incorporates three factors in addition to natural disease spread: school terms, temperature changes during an outbreak and changes in human behavior.

To collect information, researchers scoured available historical documents and collected data about weekly influenza deaths.

The paper concludes that behavioral changes of people, temperature trends and school closure all contributed to the three-wave mortality patterns in the UK during the 1918 influenza pandemic with behavioral changes having the greatest effect.

Earn conducted the study with his colleague Dr. Jonathan Dushoff, associate professor, Department on Biology, and researchers at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Queen's University and the University of Victoria.


'/>"/>

Contact: Veronica McGuire
vmcguir@mcmaster.ca
90-552-591-402-2169
McMaster University
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. After the shooting, political violence lives on in kids behavior problems
2. Dog Behavioral Expert Talks on Current Research in OCD Dogs
3. Scientists at UMass Medical School identify neurons that control feeding behavior in Drosophila
4. Deep Brain Stimulation Could Help Change Eating Behaviors in Morbidly Obese Patients
5. hCGTreatments / Diet Doc hCG Diets & Weight Loss Plans Announce New Programs That Create Positive Changes in Behavior and Lead to Best Weight Loss
6. Predicting risky sexual behavior
7. Passages Malibu Celebrates National Prevention Week and Promotes Substance Abuse and Behavioral Health Awareness
8. Poor Parenting Styles Linked to Bullying Behavior in Kids
9. Porn Use Has Small Effect on Sexual Behavior, Study Finds
10. Sexually explicit material affects behavior in young people less than thought
11. Anti-smoking ads with strong arguments, not flashy editing, trigger part of brain involving behavior change
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... 30, 2017 , ... Grass pollen is the main cause of hay fever in the United ... for grass pollen runs from May to July each year; with the worst time for ... HayMax™ allergen barrier balms ( http://www.haymax.us ) provide an effective defense against grass pollen; they ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... March 30, 2017 , ... Youth Futures International (YFI) premiered its Serve, ... high school and college students who have participated in the program every summer. ... is now accepting applications for enrollment. Visit http://www.ghana.yfiexperience.org to learn more. ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... 2017 , ... Sports Brand EXOUS Bodygear announced today a special sale price ... the remaining days of March, the price will be only $19.97. The EXOUS Bodygear ... just $10 (regular retail price $19.97). , The special promotional prices are to help ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... Rouge, Louisiana (PRWEB) , ... March 29, 2017 ... ... HeartBoost in three Hours at a Walgreens store in Mississippi. AngioGenesis Labs, makers ... at Walgreens Stores in two southeastern states. Ingredients in HeartBoost, an over the ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... 29, 2017 , ... Based on research from Guardian’s Fourth ... in trying to balance both short-term and long-term benefits demands. Are employers ... growing complexity, companies are finding that the short-term strategies used to control costs, ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:3/29/2017)... , March 29, 2017 Today, CVS Health ... Kim Reynolds , Department of Public Health Director ... Steve Lukan in announcing the availability of the ... Pharmacy locations in Iowa.  CVS Health has established a standing ... allows CVS Pharmacy to expand access to the medication in ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... 29, 2017  Experts in the field in ... like  Soberlink Systems  as a model for recovery ... in early 2017, concluded that remote blood alcohol ... patient recovery." The findings of the ... Medicine, detail a range of variables that are ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... According to a new market research report "Medical Radiation Detection, Monitoring & ... Products (Personal Dosimeters, OSL, Badges), Safety (Apron, Shields, Face Mask, Gloves), End ... to reach USD 1,215.4 Million by 2021 from USD 887.0 Million in ... Continue Reading ... ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: