Navigation Links
Battling bird flu by the numbers
Date:5/27/2008

LOS ALAMOS, New Mexico, May 27, 2008A pair of Los Alamos National Laboratory theorists have developed a mathematical tool that could help health experts and crisis managers determine in real time whether an emerging infectious disease such as avian influenza H5N1 is poised to spread globally.

In a paper published recently in the Public Library of Science, researchers Lus Bettencourt and Ruy Ribeiro of Los Alamos Theoretical Division describe a novel approach to reading subtle changes in epidemiological data to gain insight into whether something like the H5N1 strain of avian influenzacommonly known these days as the Bird Fluhas gained the ability to touch off a deadly global pandemic.

What we wanted to create was a mathematically rigorous way to account for changes in transmissibility, said Bettencourt. We now have a tool that will tell us in the very short term what is happening based on anomaly detection. What this method wont tell you is whats going to happen five years from now.

Bettencourt and Ribeiro began their work nearly three years ago, at a time when the world was wondering whether avian influenza H5N1, with its relatively high human mortality rate, could become a frightening new pandemic. Health experts believe that right now the virus primarily infects humans who come in contact with infected poultry.

But some health experts fear the virus could evolve to a form that would become transmissible from human to human, the basis of a pandemic like the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed an estimated 50 million people.

The Los Alamos researchers set out to create a smart methodology to look at changes in disease transmissibility that did not require mounds of epidemiological surveillance data for accuracy. The ability to look at small disease populations in real time could allow responders and health experts to implement quarantine policies and provide medical resources to key areas early on in an emerging pandemic a
'/>"/>

Contact: James Rickman
jamesr@lanl.gov
505-665-9203
DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. Parental Involvement Key to Battling Bulima
2. Parental Involvement Key to Battling Bulimia
3. Antibiotics Not Always Best Bet for Battling Childhood Ear Infections
4. Six Olympic Legends Battling Chronic Diseases Lead Revolution in Advancing Pharmacy Care as Medco Launches the Tour of Champions
5. Math battling cancer, deciding lifes challenges lead list as INFORMS meet in Seattle
6. Battling potential disease outbreaks online
7. Einstein researchers genetically engineer immune cells into potent weapons for battling HIV
8. Healing Starts With Us National Campaign Commits to Battling Depression - By Any Means Necessary
9. The SCOOTER Store Donates Power Scooter to an Uninsured Young Father Battling Cancer
10. Government and Corporate Support Together Help Africans Battling Malaria, AIDS
11. Battle Continues Over Vietnam PTSD Numbers
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:11/26/2014)... 2014 Anthropologists have identified concrete ... and stopping Ebola, improve international support, and pave ... in West Africa. , The report, “Strengthening ... Anthropologists Offer Insights,” will be made public during ... Association (AAA), Fri., Dec. 5, 11 a.m., at ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... For those with a New Year’s resolution to get ... at the University of Colorado Anschutz Health and Wellness ... The 45- 60 minute classes have just started and are ... club memberships. , LES MILLS BODYPUMP™ exercise classes strengthen, condition ... at fast results , By focusing on low weight ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... November 26, 2014 One of the ... at some point in her life is choosing the ... excellent platform for ladies to purchase high quality outfits. ... bridesmaid dresses. People now can pick their suitable bridesmaid ... chic dresses always make ladies look scintillating and highlight ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... The number of emergency department visits in the United States ... 136 million in 2011, according to the U.S. Centers for ... fewer people were going to ERs with non-urgent medical needs: ... within two hours of arriving at the ER. In 2010, ... Sixty percent of patients arrived at the ER after normal ...
(Date:11/26/2014)... Parents need to take an active role in protecting ... Parents must make sure sports-playing teens have the right ... of the American Migraine Foundation and a professor of ... Scottsdale, Ariz. in an American Migraine Foundation, said in ... with teens sports needs to have appropriate training. Teen ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Anthropologists Release Recommendations, Better Practices to Contain Ebola 2Health News:Anthropologists Release Recommendations, Better Practices to Contain Ebola 3Health News:LES MILLS BODYPUMP™ classes come to the University of Colorado Anschutz Health and Wellness Center 2Health News:Royal Blue Bridesmaid Dresses Now Are Available for Christmas at BellasDress.com 2Health News:ER Visits on the Rise, Study Reports 2Health News:Parents Need to Take Lead on Teen Concussion Prevention 2
... team constituted by the Trinamool Congress monitored the deteriorating ... as her hunger strike against farmland acquisition for a ... medical team, led by physician Sudarshan Ghosh Dastidar, examined ... The doctors attending on her said her blood pressure ...
... sessions can prompt women to both scale back risky ... new study//. ,Prenatal alcohol exposure is a leading ... the United States. This CDC study explored a strategy ... pregnancy. ,“A lot of people find this ...
... parents to encourage their children to put away the video ... AMA Vice President, Dr Choong-Siew Yong, said today. ,“Fun ... balls and tennis racquets are a great way to get ... ,“Swimming or horse-riding lessons, bicycle outings, backyard cricket, or just ...
... in Britain has brought to light that taking drugs to ... the chances of landing with a fractured hip sooner or later.Drugs ... heartburn.The risk is raised for people who are over 50 years ... help to sort out the acidity factor in the stomach, also ...
... have allegedly found inconsistencies in President Bush's AIDS-fighting program//, ... difficult, to gauge the success of the programme. ... AIDS program, valued at $15-billion has not enabled a ... has assisted. The Bush administration is now trying to ...
... dioxin in a U.S. beef consignment to Seoul, according to ... the American beef industry are still unconvinced about the discovery ... is higher than Korea’s 5-picogram level. ,USDA spokesman ... found 6.26 picograms of dioxin [in our samples], public health ...
Cached Medicine News:Health News:Counseling Helps Young Women Cut Drinking, Improve Contraception Use 2Health News:Counseling Helps Young Women Cut Drinking, Improve Contraception Use 3Health News:Keep Kids Active in the Holidays 2Health News:Taking Drugs for Heartburn may Cause Fractured Hip 2
(Date:11/26/2014)... SHENZHEN, China , Nov. 26, 2014 / -- China Nepstar ... the "Company"), a leading retail drugstore chain in ... directly operated stores, today announced the appointment of Ms. ... Operating Officer, effective immediately. Ms.Zhang has ... and joined Nepstar in March 1999. Prior to Ms. ...
(Date:11/24/2014)... , Nov. 24, 2014 /PRNewswire/ - Milestone Pharmaceuticals, ... trial conducted in Melbourne, Australia ... for the potential treatment of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia ... of MSP-2017 was well tolerated at single doses ... excellent safety profile, desirable PK properties including rapid ...
(Date:11/24/2014)... 2014  AiCure, an artificial intelligence company providing ... medication ingestion, has announced the start of a ... patients receiving medication as maintenance therapy for opioid ... opiates have quadrupled in the last 15 years. ... heroin, cocaine and benzodiazepines combined. Overall, the economic ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Appoints Ms. Rebecca Yingnan Zhang as Chief Operating Officer 2China Nepstar Chain Drugstore Appoints Ms. Rebecca Yingnan Zhang as Chief Operating Officer 3Milestone Announces Positive Phase 1 Data for MSP-2017; Supports Advancement into Phase 2 in PSVT Patients 2Milestone Announces Positive Phase 1 Data for MSP-2017; Supports Advancement into Phase 2 in PSVT Patients 3Can artificial intelligence solve the $55 billion problem of opioid abuse? 2
... PITTSBURGH, Jan. 19, 2011 Wexford Health Sources is ... contract with the Kane County (Illinois) Sheriff,s Office to ... Center.  Under this contract, Wexford Health will provide onsite ... approximately 640 inmates.  The contract, which started on December ...
... 19, 2011 The U.S. Food and Drug Administration ... to implement during 2011 to improve the most common ... http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20090824/FDALOGO ) Key actions include: ... certain innovative, lower-risk medical devices, Clarifying when clinical ...
Cached Medicine Technology:FDA to Improve Most Common Review Path for Medical Devices 2
... ARUP Laboratories is a national reference ... laboratory research and development. ARUP offers an ... unique medical tests in clinical and anatomic ... ARUP Laboratories' clients include more than half ...
... national reference laboratory and a worldwide leader ... offers an extensive test menu of highly ... and anatomic pathology. Owned by the University ... than half of the nation's university teaching ...
... Laboratories is a national reference laboratory and ... and development. ARUP offers an extensive test ... tests in clinical and anatomic pathology. Owned ... clients include more than half of the ...
... ARUP Laboratories is a national reference laboratory ... research and development. ARUP offers an extensive ... medical tests in clinical and anatomic pathology. ... Laboratories' clients include more than half of ...
Medicine Products: