Bias Correction of Familial Risk Estimates Increases Estimated Melanoma Risk But Not Risk of Other Common Cancers

The relative risk of familial melanoma increases substantially when researchers account for a known potential bias in a large cohort study. The relative risk of familial lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer do not change substantially with the correction.

Researchers have used the Swedish Cancer Registry and the Swedish MultiGenerational Register to estimate the relative risk of cancers for individuals who have an affected first-degree relative. However, Kamila Czene, Ph.D., of the Karolinksa Institute and colleagues recently determined that such database analyses may underestimate the risk because cancers that occur before the start of registration are not included.

In the current study, Czene and colleagues adjusted for the bias by using data from a simulated population and applying that information to the Swedish cohort.

The relative risk of familial melanoma increased from 2.68 to 3.18 following the adjustment for the bias. The impact was even greater when an affected parent was diagnosed at a young age, increasing the relative risk to 4.07. The relative risks for colorectal, lung, breast, and prostate cancer remained close to 2.

"The lack of bias for most of these cancers is due to the relatively low familial riskand/or relatively low incidence in the population, combined with a reasonably high sensitivity of the observed family history," the authors write. "Because sensitivity depends on age at onset, it is not surprising that the lowest sensitivity was observed for melanoma, a cancer with relatively young age at onset."

Contact: Kamila Czene, Kamila.Czene@ki.se, 0046-8-524-86144

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