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Actuaries: Trustees' Reports Warn of Looming Financial Challenges Facing Retirement Programs
Date:5/12/2009

e dollars. According to the latest projections, Medicare's share of the economy will triple by 2060 and could consume one in every two federal revenue dollars.

"The commitments made yesterday by the Obama administration and health care stakeholder groups to control overall spending growth in the U.S. health system are an important step in the right direction," Uccello said. "Unless spending in the health system is addressed, implementing options to control Medicare spending may have limited long-term effectiveness. The focus should be on controlling overall spending and spending health care dollars more wisely, rather than shifting costs from the government to another payer."

Social Security

The 2009 Social Security trustees' report projects that its trust fund will be depleted by 2037, four years earlier than previous estimates. This underscores the need for immediate reform, which should include increasing the retirement age, according to Bruce Schobel, the American Academy of Actuaries president-elect. He said that by acting now, policymakers could have a full range of options to choose from, be able to apply those options to multiple generations spread across a longer time span, and give people more time to appropriately plan for retirement. Tax increases could be phased in gradually, and reductions in benefit growth could be applied across a much larger population of beneficiaries, making individual reductions relatively smaller and less precipitous.

Schobel also said the program is facing an actuarial imbalance partially attributed to increasing longevity. He noted that according to Social Security Administration (SSA) actuaries, 65-year-old males in 1940 lived on average 11.9 additional years and 65-year-old females lived 13.4 additional years. By 2008 those figures had increased to an estimated 16.9 and 19.3 years, respectively. The SSA actuaries' intermediate projections s
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SOURCE American Academy of Actuaries
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