Navigation Links
65 million more obese adults in the US and 11 million more in the UK expected by 2030
Date:8/26/2011

August 26, 2011 -- The rising prevalence of obesity around the globe places an increasing burden on the health of populations, on healthcare systems and on overall economies. A major challenge for researchers is to quantify the effect of these burdens to inform public policies. Using a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences from rising obesity rates in the United States and the United Kingdom, researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and Oxford University forecast 65 million more obese adults in the U. S. and 11 million more in the U.K. by 2030, leading to millions of additional cases of diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and cancer. The findings suggest that medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases in the U.S. alone will increase by $48-66 billion per year.

The paper, "Health and Economic Burden of the Projected Obesity Trends in the USA and the UK," is part of a series of articles on obesity published in the August 27 issue of Lancet. The research was led by Y. Claire Wang, MD, ScD, Mailman School assistant professor of Health Policy and Management, with colleagues from Oxford University.

To construct historic trends in BMI the researchers analyzed data from two nationally representative surveys: the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1988 to 2008, and the Healthy Survey for England (HSE) from 1993 to 2008. The U.S. and U.K. have the highest obesity rates among the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Projecting from these data sets: the researchers predicted the following impacts for the U.S. by 2030:

  • Obesity prevalence among men would rise from 32% in 2008 to approximately 50% and from 35% to between 45% and 52% among women.
  • 7.8 million extra cases of diabetes
  • 6.8 million more cases of coronary heart disease and stroke
  • 539,000 additional cases of cancer
  • Annual spending on obesity-related diseases would rise by 13-16%, leading to 2.6% increase in national health spending.
  • Total medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year.

For the U.K., researchers predicted the following developments by 2030:

  • Prevalence of obesity among men would increase from 26% to between 4148%, and among women from 26% to 35-43%.
  • 668 000 more cases of diabetes
  • 461,000 more cases of heart disease and stroke
  • 139,000 additional cases of cancer.
  • In the U.K., annual spending on obesity-related health would increase even more rapidly than in the U.S. due to its older population, rising 25%.

"Many chronic and acute health disorders associated with excess bodyweight burden societynot only by negatively affecting the health-related quality of life but also by incurring significant costs," says Dr. Wang. These stem not only from increased healthcare expenditures but also from worker absenteeism, disability pensions, less productivity at work due to poor health, and earlier retirement."

The new study shows that even a small drop in average body mass index (BMI) would have a major health and economic impacts. They therefore recommend action to promote healthier body weights.

"Taking no action would have the catastrophic consequences described in our study, but a population level decrease in BMI by 1% would avoid as many as 2.4 million cases of diabetes, 1.7 million cases of heart disease and stroke, and up to 127 000 cases of cancer in the U.S. alone ."

There are currently 99 million obese individuals in the U.S and 15 million in the U.K. The distribution of obesity is somewhat different in the two nations. In the U.S. about one-quarter of all men are obese regardless of ethnicity. Almost half of black American women (46%) are obese, compared with a third of Hispanic women and 30% of white women. In the U.K., the proportion of obese white men (19%) is slightly higher than black men (17%) and much higher than Asian men (11%). One-third of black women in the U.K. are obese, compared with 1 in 5 white women and 1 in 6 Asian women.

While there is some evidence that the rise in obesity is levelling off in some nations and possibly in the U.S., the jury is still out, says Dr. Wang. "Population weight changes are slow to manifest. Whether or not the U.S. and UK have turned a corner or plateaued will not be clear until survey results over the next few years provide additional data points."

The suggestion that obese people die earlier, thus saving the likely expected social and healthcare costs if that person survives to old age, is also discussed in the paper. However the authors conclude, "Without a doubt, healthcare expenditure is high for elderly people, but these costs should not be used to justify the cost-savings of dying younger, or to suggest that obesity prevention has no benefit."


'/>"/>

Contact: Stephanie Berger
sb2247@columbia.edu
212-305-4372
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Source:Eurekalert

Related medicine news :

1. Amway One by One Campaign for Children Reaches 7 Million Kids
2. Michael J. Fox Foundation Awards $1 Million to Drive Critical New Research Tools and Technologies in Parkinsons Drug Development
3. International Diabetes Federation awards $2 million to 9 global diabetes research projects
4. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $418.8 Million for Texas and Cut Youth Smoking
5. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $18.6 Million for Montana and Cut Youth Smoking
6. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $24.8 Million for Wyoming and Cut Youth Smoking
7. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $43.3 Million for Utah and Cut Youth Smoking
8. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $113.9 Million for Colorado and Cut Youth Smoking
9. New Report: $1 Cigarette Tax Increase Would Raise $65.3 Million for Iowa and Cut Youth Smoking
10. Kaiser Permanente Approves $170 Million in Community Benefit Grants in 2009
11. America's Hidden Pandemic: 100 Million Suffer From Sleep Problems
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... March 28, 2017 , ... City trips ... (IBT World Travel Trends Report). As travelers visit both urban destinations, they are ... and prolonged sun exposure. In response, the outdoor industry has blurred the lines ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... March 28, 2017 , ... Z-Medica, LLC, ... of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) will acquire QuikClot® Bleeding Control Kits® (BCK) to ... developed in association with efforts by the American College of Surgeons, U.S. Department ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... Calif. (PRWEB) , ... March 28, 2017 , ... ... its leading physicians, Paul Yost, will begin serving as new board chair for ... this month. Yost will serve the remainder of soon-to-be former chair Mark Refowitz’s ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... March 28, 2017 , ... In ... Self-Funding Success website has recently developed and published an informational resource that addresses ... created based on common inquiries the site’s team of third party administrator (TPA) ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... ... March 28, 2017 , ... Prominant bariatric surgeon and well-known ... to offer the recently FDA-approved Obalon Balloon System to his patients. The Obalon ... Surgical’s already comprehensive list of weight-loss services. Dr. Liu is proud to ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:3/28/2017)... 2017  Akcea Therapeutics, a subsidiary of Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ... of directors: Christopher Gabrieli ... serve as chairman of the board of Akcea Therapeutics. ... of Forest Laboratories. Sandford D. Smith ... "We are excited to announce this expansion to ...
(Date:3/28/2017)... , March 28, 2017 ... expected to reach a value of USD 4.5 billion ... View Research, Inc. Proper closure of injured tissues post ... and function. Postoperative leakages occur in 3% to 15% ... They are responsible for one third of postoperative deaths ...
(Date:3/27/2017)... , March 27, 2017 The National ... health and data analytics company, signed a Memorandum ... improving healthcare delivery in the region. ... Global Health Research and Technology (BIGHEART) at NUS ... several topics related to healthcare IT and medical ...
Breaking Medicine Technology: