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40 million TB deaths due to smoking over next 40 years
Date:10/11/2011

fessor of medicine and director of the Center for Tobacco Control Research and Education at UCSF.

"Tobacco control is tuberculosis control,'' said Glantz.

For decades, UCSF has been at the forefront of research on tobacco control. The university maintains an archive of important documents including 79 million pages of formerly secret tobacco industry papers.

Until now, mathematical models of tuberculosis have taken into account the spread of HIV, the impact of new TB detection technologies and drug resistance but not smoking. In the new study, the researchers estimated the smoking population in each of the World Health Organization's six regions to calculate the number of TB infections and deaths among smokers between 2010 and 2050, as well as the number of secondary infections and deaths resulting from each new case of TB attributable to smoking. The new model incorporates changing trends in smoking, case detection, treatment success and HIV prevalence.

The model predicted more than 18 million TB cases and 40 million TB deaths would be attributable to smoking.

"In India, for example, 38 percent of deaths from tuberculosis among middle aged men are attributed to smoking,'' the study said, "costing India's economy three times its tuberculosis budget.''

Vigorous tobacco control that results in a 1 percent drop annually in a country's smoking rates could substantially reduce the toll by 27 million deaths, the researchers said.


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Contact: Elizabeth Fernandez
elizabeth.fernandez@ucsf.edu
415-502-6397
University of California - San Francisco
Source:Eurekalert

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