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Global Food Security Depends on Modern Agriculture
Date:3/17/2010

agriculture in the past decades. As we face growing global demands and increasing resource constraints, agriculture must now become more sustainable.”

The full scope of the enormous challenge facing global agriculture in the coming decades was fully evident from projections presented by John Kruse, Global Insights economist. His study provided detailed projections for more than a dozen major crops in the important producing and consuming regions of the world. His projections indicated that overall crop demand will expand from present levels by approximately 85% to 2050.

Another study indicated that other considerations are now more prominent and must be factored into the future challenge.

“For the past 50 years, we have expanded food production by converting natural habitat at the rate of 0.4 percent per year. If we assume the ‘business as usual’ case for expanding into natural habitat, there will be very little left by 2050,” said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund. “To feed 9 billion people and maintain the planet, we must freeze the footprint of food. The Earth’s resources are finite. If we exceed the carrying capacity of the planet, we are taking away the very resource base that will be needed by our children and our grandchildren.”

To examine the implications of freezing agriculture’s footprint, IHS Global Insight calculated the crop yield increases that would be necessary to meet global demand if the total crop area is fixed at the current level.

“Holding crop area fixed and assuming only historical yield growth, food production will fall far short of the needs by 2050,” said John Kruse. “Meeting those needs with the same land area would require global crop yields to increase nearly 25 percent faster than historically.”

William G. Lesher, Executive Director of the Global Harvest Initiative, noted that other resour
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