Methodology of Predictions
Using Thomson Scientific's Essential Science Indicators, a database for quantitative analysis of performance and trends in global research, and other data from ISI Web of Science, analysts review scientists who typically rank in the top 0.1% in their research areas based on their citation counts and number of high-impact papers.
"Clearly the choices of the Nobel Committees are more complex than simply identifying highly cited or most-cited scientists," said Pendlebury. "We simply use citations as the primary indicator. This tells us where to begin our prediction process."
Each candidate's record is then examined with a thought to discoveries or themes that might be considered worthy of special recognition by the Nobel Committee. In each of four areas -- Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Economics -- three predictions are made each year and those names added to the elite list of the Thomson Scientific Hall of Laureates. "It's more luck than skill," said Pendlebury. "But by focusing on the most- cited scientists we hope to, as it were, better our luck."
For more information and a list of the Thomson Scientific Laureates, or information on the selection process, please go to: http://scientific.thomson.com/nobel/.
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