2007 Winners Demonstrate Strong Correlation Between Citations and
PHILADELPHIA, and LONDON, Oct. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Thomson Scientific, part of The Thomson Corporation (NYSE: TOC; TSX: TOC) and leading provider of information solutions to the worldwide research and business communities, accurately predicted two out of four Nobel Prize category winners this year -- in Physiology or Medicine, and in Physics.
This year's Physiology or Medicine award winners Mario R. Capecchi, Sir Martin J Evans, and Oliver Smithies, and the Physics award winners Albert Fert and Peter Grunberg, were accurately forecasted in 2006 as probable Nobel Laureates, using Thomson Scientific's analysis of citations. They were then admitted into the Thomson Scientific Hall of Laureates.
The Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, although not predicted, is a highly cited scientist and is listed in ISI Highly Cited (http://www.isihighlycited.com/), a freely accessible website that lists individuals that are the most highly cited within various fields for the period 1981-1999.
"Our successful predictions demonstrate the power of citation analysis to reveal important research contributions and the scientists responsible for them," said David Pendlebury, analyst with the Research Services group at Thomson Scientific. "Our prediction method, using citation counts as its fundamental point of departure, has over the years proven to be an accurate measure of research success and of Nobelists to be."
Many studies conducted over the past three decades have shown a strong correlation between citations in the literature and peer esteem, often reflected in professional awards such as the Nobel Prize. Each year, Thomson Scientific adds three candidates per Nobel category to the Thomson Scientific Hall of Laureates. Based on information that includes their citation counts, the selected candidates have a high probability of being awarded the Nobel Prize that year or in future years. Using this method, analysts at Thomson Scientific have successfully predicted 27 Nobel Prize winners since 1989.
Methodology of Predictions
Using Thomson Scientific's Essential Science Indicators, a database for quantitative analysis of performance and trends in global research, and other data from ISI Web of Science, analysts review scientists who typically rank in the top 0.1% in their research areas based on their citation counts and number of high-impact papers.
"Clearly the choices of the Nobel Committees are more complex than simply identifying highly cited or most-cited scientists," said Pendlebury. "We simply use citations as the primary indicator. This tells us where to begin our prediction process."
Each candidate's record is then examined with a thought to discoveries or themes that might be considered worthy of special recognition by the Nobel Committee. In each of four areas -- Physiology or Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Economics -- three predictions are made each year and those names added to the elite list of the Thomson Scientific Hall of Laureates. "It's more luck than skill," said Pendlebury. "But by focusing on the most- cited scientists we hope to, as it were, better our luck."
For more information and a list of the Thomson Scientific Laureates, or information on the selection process, please go to: http://scientific.thomson.com/nobel/.
About The Thomson Corporation
The Thomson Corporation (http://www.thomson.com) is a global leader in providing essential electronic workflow solutions to business and professional customers. With operational headquarters in Stamford, Conn., Thomson provides value-added information, software tools and applications to professionals in the fields of law, tax, accounting, financial services, scientific research and healthcare. The Corporation's common shares are listed on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges (NYSE: TOC; TSX: TOC).
Thomson Scientific is a business of The Thomson Corporation. Its information solutions assist professionals at every stage of research and development-from discovery to analysis to product development and distribution. Thomson Scientific information solutions can be found at scientific.thomson.com.
|SOURCE Thomson Scientific|
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