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Unlike many of its biotech brethren, Unigene is not another developmental company with plenty of promise, but no sales. The Company not only has product sales, but based primarily on the strength of Fortical's sales, UGNE's most recent quarter (Q307) showed an operating profit. Going forward, we have modeled Fortical(R) sales to provide a slight net profit beginning in Q108, and continuing throughout the year.
We believe there are two very viable scenarios that could quickly elevate this company's success, and both are in the relatively short term. The first scenario occurs in the latter part of 2008 and involves the FDA's evaluation of reports of atrial fibrillation in bisphosphonate patients. After a series of serious side effects linked to long-term use of bisphosphonates, we believe this could be "the final straw" in tipping the risk/reward scale toward patients and physicians seeking osteoporosis therapies with proven safety profiles. The second scenario, which would have a huge impact on the sCT market, is FDA approval of oral calcitonin as a therapy for osteoarthritis. If clinical data is positive, we believe oral-sCT could become the first disease altering therapeutic available for the 21 million osteoarthritis sufferers in the U.S. We estimate this market launch could be as early as 2010. And notably, this launch could be followed by the launch of a Novartis oral calcitonin product. Both of these potential products are in Phase III trials.
Our model projects the majority of revenue to come from Fortical(R)
sales over the next two years with 2007 revenue ending at slightly under
$24 million, and an EPS of ($0.02). We have modeled 2008 revenue to total
approximately $29.2 million, with an EPS of $0.01. We expect to see
increased efficiencies in the manufacturing process over the next several
quarters, adding to the bottom line as well. We have projected R&D to
increase, but to remain relatively flat as a percentage of revenue. Gene
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| SOURCE Unigene Laboratories Inc. Copyright©2008 PR Newswire. All rights reserved |
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