Navigation Links
First real-time flu forecast successful
Date:12/3/2013

y is the first to make predictions in actual real-time and for the whole country.

Beginning in late November of 2012, the researchers used the flu forecasting system to perform weekly estimates for 108 cities. They shared the results with the CDC and posted them online in an academic archive. Near the end of 2012, four weeks into the flu season, the system had predicted 63% of cities accurately. As the season progressed, the accuracy increased. By week four, it successfully predicted the seasonal peak in 70% of the country. It was able to give accurate lead-times up to nine weeks in advance of the peak; most lead-times were two to four weeks.

The flu forecasts were also much more reliable than those made using alternate, approaches that rely on historical data. "Our method greatly outperformed these alternate schemes," says Dr. Shaman.

The researchers saw regional differences in the accuracy of the system, but they were likely within normal variation. "As an example, retrospectively, we've been able to predict the flu in Chicago very well; this year we did a terrible job in that city. For other cities, the opposite held. It averages out. On the whole the system performed very well," Dr. Shaman says. However, there were hints of geographical differences. "We were able make better predictions in smaller cities. Population density may also be important. It suggests that in a city like New York, we may need to predict at a finer granularity, perhaps at the borough level. In a big sprawling city like Los Angeles, we may need to predict influenza at the level of individual neighborhoods."

Google Flu Trends Goes "Off the Rails"

The researchers designed the flu forecasting system to use combined data from 1) Google Flu Trends, which makes estimates of outbreaks based on the number of flu-related search queries, and 2) region-specific reports from the Centers for Disease Control on verified cases of flu. The system app
'/>"/>

Contact: Timothy S. Paul
tp2111@columbia.edu
212-305-2676
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2 3

Related biology technology :

1. Charles M. Lieber receives the first Nano Research Award
2. University of Maryland School of Medicine Holds First "Festival of Science" to Launch New Program for Accelerating Innovation and Discovery in Medicine
3. Berg Launches First-Ever Stratified Medicine Clinical Trial To Investigate Cancer Metabolism Of Solid Tumors
4. StromAb, First-In-Class Antibody Dissolves Thrombus In ACUTE Stroke & Cardiovascular Disease, In Production Phase I Clinical Trials
5. Amgen Announces Evolocumab (AMG 145) Results From First 52-Week Study Of A PCSK9 Inhibitor To Reduce LDL Cholesterol
6. The CPAP Shop is Pleased to Offer the First Z1™, the World's Smallest, Lightest and Most Innovative CPAP Machine Available Today
7. Cartes 2013: DERMALOG Presents World Firsts in Biometrics
8. China Cord Blood Corporation Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter and First Half of Fiscal 2014
9. RXi Pharmaceuticals Announces the Start of Their First Phase 2 Study with RXI-109 for Treatment of Hypertrophic Scars in Conjunction with Scar Revision Surgery
10. UCLA Venture Capital Fund Selects KYTHERA Biopharmaceuticals CEO Keith Leonard for First Annual Entrepreneurial Achievement Award
11. TPI to Host First Quarter Fiscal Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call on Friday, November 15, 2013 at 8:30 a.m. ET
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:7/29/2015)... , July 29, 2015  AsureQuality and Ubiquitome ... testing for applications in food and primary production ... powered real-time PCR device, the Freedom4. ... through to the supermarket shelf for producers, processors ... involvement in animal disease control and pest management ...
(Date:7/29/2015)... 29, 2015 Research ... addition of the "Global Biosimilars Market, 2015 ... The Global Biosimilars Market, 2015 - 2025, ... growing biosimilars market. With the blockbuster biologics losing ... costs, biosimilars are being viewed as viable substitutes ...
(Date:7/29/2015)... CHICAGO , July 29, 2015  AmnioChor Inc., ... cell technology, is very pleased to announce that the ... has agreed to invest in their seed round ... OmniBank placental tissue storage capabilities. AmnioChor,s ... placenta, and the human stem cells living within those ...
(Date:7/29/2015)... 29, 2015  Pfenex Inc. (NYSE MKT: PFNX) announced ... be released on Thursday, August 13, 2015, before the ... management will host a conference call to discuss the ... release outlining the financial results and business update will ... Please call 1-866-376-8058 (US) or 1-412-542-4131 (international) and reference ...
Breaking Biology Technology:AsureQuality and Ubiquitome Partner on Applications for Mobile Molecular Food Safety Testing 2Global Biosimilars Market to 2025: Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs), Insulin, Interferons, G-CSF/ GM-CSF, Erythropoietins and Others 2Global Biosimilars Market to 2025: Monoclonal Antibodies (mAbs), Insulin, Interferons, G-CSF/ GM-CSF, Erythropoietins and Others 3The Musculoskeletal Transplant Foundation Agrees to Invest in AmnioChor 2Pfenex To Report Second Quarter 2015 Results and Provide Business Update on Thursday, August 13, 2015 2
... Quest Diagnostics,Incorporated (NYSE: DGX ), the nation,s ... announced that its Board of,Directors declared a quarterly ... per share, payable on July 18, 2008, to ... Quest Diagnostics, Quest Diagnostics is the leading ...
... Systems announces,the successful development and operation of the ... development of its Monarch250(TM) proton,therapy system. This cyclotron ... cyclotrons at this high field strength can be ... the operating,magnetic field, Still River Systems is developing ...
... At the 14th International,Leksell Gamma Knife(R) Society ... neurosurgeons, radiation oncologists and other medical,specialists using ... and other,brain disorders convened at the historic ... meeting, 260 oral and poster presentations covered,treatment ...
Cached Biology Technology:Still River Systems Announces Operation of the World's Highest Magnetic Field Cyclotron 2Elekta Sees Record Attendance and Record Number of Submitted Abstracts at International Leksell Gamma Knife(R) Society Meeting in Quebec, Canada 2Elekta Sees Record Attendance and Record Number of Submitted Abstracts at International Leksell Gamma Knife(R) Society Meeting in Quebec, Canada 3
(Date:7/23/2015)... , July 23, 2015 Research ... addition of the "Global Outlook of the ... offering. The global biometrics market ... public and commercial applications owing to the uptake ... witness a transformation that enhances the growth of ...
(Date:7/13/2015)... , July 13, 2015 Synaptics Inc. ... human interface solutions, today announced sampling of ClearPad ... display driver integration (TDDI) product targeting smartphones and ... to combine Synaptics , best-in-class touch controller ... driver technology developed in the company,s Japan Design ...
(Date:7/9/2015)... JOSE, Calif. , July 9, 2015 ... the leading developer of human interface solutions, ... technology, the industry,s first fully hardware encapsulated ... Match-in-Sensor secure authentication technology is literally off ... storage and biometric matching within the fingerprint ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):Global Outlook of the Biometrics Industry 2015 2Global Outlook of the Biometrics Industry 2015 3Synaptics Announces Sampling of Second Generation TDDI Solutions 2Synaptics Announces Sampling of Second Generation TDDI Solutions 3Synaptics Announces World's First Match-in-Sensor Fingerprint Authentication Technology 2Synaptics Announces World's First Match-in-Sensor Fingerprint Authentication Technology 3
... new mother counts her newborn's fingers and toes, she ... for baby's complete set of 20 digits. , ... fatty substance responsible for clogging arteries, Vanderbilt University Medical ... to an important developmental protein controls the development of ...
... study, the presence of caspase-12, which appears to modulate ... "vulnerability to bacterial infection and septic shock" while a ... suggests that caspase-12 antagonists could be a potentially useful ... immune disorders. , The study was published in ...
... household gelling agent in making jams and jellies, but ... instance, and may have a role in important biological ... disease. , Despite the importance of pectin as a ... have known relatively little about how this family of ...
Cached Biology News:Cholesterol gets 'thumbs up' for role in digit development 2Cholesterol gets 'thumbs up' for role in digit development 3Lack of a key enzyme dramatically increases resistance to sepsis 2Lack of a key enzyme dramatically increases resistance to sepsis 3Discovery of new molecular tools for biosynthesis could lead to advances in use of pectin 2Discovery of new molecular tools for biosynthesis could lead to advances in use of pectin 3
RayBio L Series 507: RayBio Label-based Antibody Array I (2 membranes) Class: Antibody Array Products Product Group: Antibody Array...
... filter (S37100, Photographic Filters for Fluorescent ... for black-and-white photography of gels stained ... stain, the safer ethidium bromide alternative. ... filter is identical to the SYPRO ...
Mature rat whole blood (Sprague-Dawley, averaging 7-8 weeks of age, either sex) is collected at the time of slaughter and processed within 45 minutes. It is then filtered through gauze, pooled in an ...
LAL Chromogenic Endpoint assay...
Biology Products: