A New Way to Predict Outbreaks: Replikin Peptide Concentration in H5N1 Influenza Virus Genome as a Marker for Lethal...( using newly designedsoftware which viru...)

Replikin peptides are not distributed equally throughout the virus genome, but are concentrated in a specific area of the genome designated the Replikin Peak Gene (RPGene). When the replikin counts for certain viral strains are elevated, we see pandemics -- in which one to 50 million people die. Note that the replikins, like the pandemics, are strain-specific.

From its observations Replikins were able to predict an impending increase in human H5N1 mortality rate. In each host group -- goose, duck, chicken and human -- levels stayed low through 2004. But then Replikins saw a sudden spike in replikins particularly in chicken and human populations in 2005-06, which corresponded with increased epidemics in Asian countries. Which countries? Here again, Replikins looked at H5N1 replikin counts per country. Low levels - - below 4 -- were observed in each country until 2005-06, when it spiked most dramatically in Indonesia. Replikins thus predicted that Indonesia would be the first country to experience an H5N1 outbreak with higher human mortality, and this was proven to be correct in 2006-07.

So Replikins have demonstrated that tracking replikin counts not only works historically, but it can predict impending human mortality. Sequence the virus and you can tell whether it's relatively benign or likely to cause a pandemic -- the first time this has been possible.

Replikins is offering its FluForecast(R) service to WHO and CDC as a powerful new tool for tracking the appearance and lethality of new flu strains. By performing prompt replikin analysis of all human influenza sequences as they emerge, we can have advance warning of the intensity and location of future human influenza outbreaks. This will increase the accuracy of annual formulations for influenza vaccines, and will thereby hopefully reduce an
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