Navigation Links
Understanding biases in epidemic models important when making public health predictions

Mathematical models have become invaluable decision-making tools for public health officials. As demonstrated during the United Kingdom's foot-and-mouth epidemic of 2001, models can be useful in two ways: they can reveal the underlying characteristics of an infection and they can allow the comparison of alternative control measures. Often, however, such models make implicit assumptions that may systematically bias their predictions, say researchers at the University of Georgia.

In a paper published today in the online open-access journal PLoS (Public Library of Science) Medicine, Helen Wearing and Pejman Rohani of the Institute of Ecology at the University of Georgia and Matt Keeling of the University of Warwick, United Kingdom, showed that commonly used disease models may risk making overly optimistic predictions about the levels of public health interventions needed to bring a disease under control.

Wearing and her colleagues found that many off-the-shelf models used in infection management do not realistically account for the length of time that people harbor infections. The simplest models entirely ignore the latent period of a disease: the period of time when an individual is infected but not yet infectious. Other models often assume that the rate of progression from latent to infectious, and infectious to recovered, is constant, irrespective of the time already spent in that status. In such models, for example, many people have a very short infectious period while a few have a very long infectious period. In reality, most people are infectious for an average period of time. For the flu the average infectious period is around 4-5 days, with incredibly few people infectious for less than a couple of days or more than a week.

"Models which do not incorporate the latent period or assume unrealistic distributions of the latent and infectious period," said the researchers, "always resulted in underestimating the transmission potential of an in
'"/>

Source:University of Georgia


Page: 1 2

Related biology news :

1. The circadian clock: Understanding natures timepiece
2. Breakthrough System for Understanding Ocean Plant Life Announced
3. Understanding how bacteria communicate may help scientists prevent disease
4. Understanding the oceans microbes is key to the Earths future
5. Understanding the actions of others requires the frontal cortex
6. Researcher says flu responders can learn from 1918 epidemic
7. Lethal needle blight epidemic may be related to climate change
8. New U. of Colorado at Boulder flu chip may help combat future epidemics, pandemics
9. UGA study explains peaks and troughs of dengue epidemics
10. UGA researchers find that hunting can increase the severity of wildlife disease epidemics
11. US control strategies may make flu epidemics worse, UCLA study shows
Post Your Comments:
(Date:4/17/2015)... 2015 Increasing adoption ... advancement to drive biometric systems market in ... According to a recently released TechSci ... ", biometric systems market in Saudi ... at CAGR of over 22% through 2020. The ...
(Date:4/13/2015)... 2015 According to a ... Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2020", the global biometrics market ... 14% till 2020. The biometrics market is garnering ... and review of biometric management systems. The constant ... with greater efficiency, are resulting in increasing installation ...
(Date:4/9/2015)... , April 9, 2015 Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: ... solutions, announced today that it will report financial results ... April 23, 2015, after the close of market. The ... and investors at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET), ... To participate on the live call, analysts and ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):Saudi Arabia Biometric Systems Market to Grow at 22% Through 2020, Says TechSci Research 2Saudi Arabia Biometric Systems Market to Grow at 22% Through 2020, Says TechSci Research 3Global Biometrics Market to Cross US$ 21 Billion by 2020: TechSci Research 2Synaptics to Report Third Quarter Results on April 23 2
... temperate forests across the United States, choking out native ... of Illinois ecologist Adam Davis has created a computer ... believes will be able to predict the perfect predator ... forested area that will help reduce the garlic mustard ...
... The Wildlife Conservation Society and the Panthera Foundation ... from Bhutan to Burma that would allow tiger populations ... at the United Nations on January 30th, would span ... habitat left on earth. , Dr. Alan Rabinowitz, ...
... A new thesis from he Swedish medical university Karolinska ... men and women. The scientists who conducted the study ... why depression and chronic anxiety are more common in ... brain neurotransmitter that is critical to the development and ...
Cached Biology News:Predicting the perfect predator 2Predicting the perfect predator 3'Genetic corridors' are next step to saving tigers 2'Genetic corridors' are next step to saving tigers 3
(Date:5/22/2015)... 2015  Actavis plc (NYSE: ACT ) today ... Appeals for the Second Circuit has issued a ruling ... Company to continue distribution of NAMENDA ® (memantine ...   "While we are disappointed by ... to continue our strong efforts to convey the significant ...
(Date:5/22/2015)... NJ (PRWEB) May 22, 2015 ... new white paper that explores the potential of big ... The white paper was developed to help life sciences ... can leverage data to gain critical business insights. , ... large amounts of data driven by patient profiling, compliance ...
(Date:5/21/2015)... (PRWEB) May 21, 2015 Seventh Wave ... safety and efficacy of pharmaceutical products and medical devices, ... Heights, MO 63043, a 50,000 sq. ft. building more ... to enable strategic growth. Facility renovations will begin immediately ... new space will occur in September. , “We ...
(Date:5/21/2015)... YORK , May 21, 2015  Prima Biomed ... company that is striving to become a leader in ... cancer, recently announced that the final CVac data from ... shown a clear trend for a clinically meaningful improvement ... in second remission patients. In the group ...
Breaking Biology Technology:Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 2Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 3Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 4Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 5Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 6Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 7Actavis Confirms Appeals Court Ruling Requiring Continued Distribution of NAMENDA IR 8New White Paper Explores the Potential of Big Data Analytics in Life Sciences and Healthcare 2Seventh Wave Laboratories Purchases Building for Expansion, Upcoming Move 2Seventh Wave Laboratories Purchases Building for Expansion, Upcoming Move 3Correction Continues after Big Move - BrokerBank Securities, Inc. 2
... MATEO, Calif., Feb. 4 NeurogesX, Inc. (Nasdaq: ... and commercializing novel pain management therapies, announced today that ... to present at the 11th Annual BIO CEO & ... 10, 2009. Mr. DiTonno and Stephen Ghiglieri, Chief Financial ...
... Genesis HealthCare, a provider of long-term care ... announced today that Wendy LaBate has been promoted to ... In her new position, LaBate will be responsible ... Genesis, Regional Vice Presidents of Operations and Administrators in ...
... Mich., Feb. 4 Diplomat Specialty Pharmacy is,pleased ... As of January 2009, DSP launched both ... Scott Reed has joined Diplomat as National,Sales Manager ... Indiana University and,has over 18 years ...
Cached Biology Technology:NeurogesX to Present at 11th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference 2NeurogesX to Present at 11th Annual BIO CEO & Investor Conference 3Genesis HealthCare Promotes Wendy LaBate To Senior Vice President of Operations for the Northeast Area 2Diplomat Specialty Pharmacy Expands National Hemophilia & IVIG Program 2
The Protein Kinase Factsbooks (2 Volume Set)...
... PhastGel DNA Silver Staining Kit, 1. ... gels.Separate proteins and peptides on denaturing, ... and improve reproducibility with precast gels, ... sensitivity comparable to that of radioisotopes ...
ANTI S. ENT TOX BC2D...
Porcine Serum US Origin 6 Months or Older...
Biology Products: