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The Amazon in 2050: Implementing the law could save a million square kilometers of rainforest

of the forest for centuries to come. According to co-author Daniel Nepstad, "By building a policy-sensitive 'crystal ball' for the Amazon, we are able to identify the most important policy levers for reconciling economic development with conservation. We know that parks are important but, alone, insufficient components of a strategy for 'comprehensive conservation' of the Amazon. Private landholder conservationists are essential to the future of the Amazon region."."

In subsequent phases of the Amazon Scenarios project, new economic models that determine the trajectory of logging, cattle ranching, and soybean farming are linked with ecological models of forests and climate models to develop integrated simulations of the region's future.

Britaldo Soares-Filho is a geographer and modeler. He has studied Amazon land-use patterns for the last 12 years, developing computer programs that simulate land-use change. He is a professor at the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, where his teaching interests include ecosystem dynamics and modeling and digital cartography, and director of the Universidade's Center for Remote Sensing. He is also a Visiting Scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center. He earned his doctorate in Spatial Analysis from the Universidade de São Paulo in 1998. He also holds a master's in remote sensing from the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.

A tropical forest ecologist, Nepstad has studied Amazon forests and strategies for their conservation for the last 21 years. His research includes forest fires and "savannization", the analysis of public policies to conserve the Amazon's natural resources, the prediction of future trends of Amazon forests and people, and the environmental certification of the region's cattle ranchers and soy farmers. Based in Belém, Brazil, he leads the Center's Amazon program. In 1995, he co-founded the Amazon Institute of Environmental Studies (Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia),
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Source:Woods Hole Research Center


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