An international project on the ecology of Maculinea butterflies has now brought together the CEH team with theoreticians from the universities of Würzburg and Montpellier to investigate this problem. Together they have compiled various potential adaptive explanations for the evolution of such strategies into a general and quantitative model. "The problem was not the lack of, but multitude of alternative mechanisms principally capable to explain the evolution of delayed development," Dr. Thomas Hovestadt, the project leader from Würzburg University, points out.
The scientists conclude that low added mortality and intense competition among caterpillars in the nest are a prerequisite for the evolution of delayed development, but cannot explain it on their own. In contrast, sibling competition and "segregation" ?cohorts from both years do not always compete because infected ant colonies avoid re-infection in the next season ?favor evolutionary stable fractions of slow developers up to 50%. However, among all arguments suggested so far, only a "priority effect" ?the competitive asymmetry between last year's slow and this year's fast deve loping caterpillars ?can explain why more than 50% of caterpillars mature in their second season. Yet, according to the currently available data, the effect seems to be too weak to fully explain the large proportion of caterpillars delaying development. Based on a simple model expansion, the scientists predict that added benefits achieved by slow-developers after emergence would also tip the balance in favor of slow development. It is now a matter of further field and lab work to demonstrate that such benefits exist.