Navigation Links
Scientists develop malaria forecasting tool to predict disease risk

A new tool to predict epidemics of malaria up to five months in advance has been developed by a scientist at the University of Liverpool.

The model uses predictions of climate variability to indicate the level of risk of an epidemic up to five months in advance of the peak malaria season ?the earliest point at which predictions have ever been made. The model will assist doctors and health care providers in preventing and controlling the disease.

Malaria is one of the world's deadliest diseases, killing more than one million people every year, as well as infecting a further 500 million worldwide. The mosquito-borne illness is endemic in several regions globally, but is most acute in Africa, home to an estimated 90 per cent of all cases.

Dr Andy Morse from the Department of Geography and colleagues from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting; Columbia University, New York and the Ministry of Health in Botswana, based their early-warning model on population vulnerability, rainfall and health surveillance data and then used forthcoming season forecasts for rainfall to predict unusual changes in the seasonal pattern of disease in Botswana. The team based their study on Botswana as its climate makes it susceptible to malaria epidemics.

Dr Morse said: "The risk of an epidemic in tropical countries such as Botswana increases dramatically shortly after a season of good rainfall ?when the heat and humidity allow mosquito populations to thrive. By using a number of climate models, we were able to compose weather predictions for such countries, which could then be used to calculate the severity of an epidemic, months before its occurrence."

The team created a prediction system using seven, state-of-the-art, global climate models which produce weather forecasts up to six months in advance. The system allows researchers to assess the probable effect of weather conditions on a malaria epidemic.

The team's research is published in the latest issue of Nature.


'"/>

Source:University of Liverpool


Related biology news :

1. Scientists ID molecular switch in liver that triggers harmful effects of saturated and trans fats
2. Scientists Replicate Hepatitis C Virus in Laboratory
3. Scientists detect probable genetic cause of some Parkinsons disease cases
4. Scientists find missing enzyme for tuberculosis iron scavenging pathway
5. Scientists seek answers on what activates deadly anthrax spores
6. Yale Scientists Find MicroRNA Regulates Ras Cancer Gene
7. Scientists collaborate to assess health of global environment
8. Scientists decipher genome of fungus that can cause life-threatening infections
9. Scientists discover the cellular roots of graying hair
10. Scientists rid stem cell culture of key animal cells
11. Scientists develop new color-coded test for protein folding
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:6/16/2016)... 2016 The global ... reach USD 1.83 billion by 2024, according to ... Technological proliferation and increasing demand in commercial buildings, ... drive the market growth.      (Logo: ... development of advanced multimodal techniques for biometric authentication ...
(Date:6/3/2016)... , June 3, 2016 ... Management) von Nepal ... und Lieferung hochsicherer geprägter Kennzeichen, einschließlich Personalisierung, ... führend in der Produktion und Implementierung von ... der Ausschreibung im Januar teilgenommen, aber Decatur ...
(Date:5/24/2016)... Ampronix facilitates superior patient care by providing unparalleled technology to leaders of the medical ... premium product recently added to the range of products distributed by Ampronix. ... ... ... Ampronix News ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... -- Houston Methodist Willowbrook Hospital has signed a ... serve as their official health care provider. As ... provide sponsorship support, athletic training services, and most ... athletes and families. "We are excited ... to bring Houston Methodist quality services and programs ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 23, 2016   EpiBiome , a precision microbiome ... in debt financing from Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). The ... to advance its drug development efforts, as well as ... "SVB has been an incredible strategic partner to ... traditional bank would provide," said Dr. Aeron Tynes ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... , June 23, 2016 Apellis Pharmaceuticals, ... 1 clinical trials of its complement C3 inhibitor, ... and multiple ascending dose studies designed to assess ... of subcutaneous injection in healthy adult volunteers. ... either as a single dose (ranging from 45 ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... CA (PRWEB) , ... June 23, 2016 , ... ... software, is exhibiting at the Pennsylvania Convention Center and will showcase its product’s ... conference. ClinCapture will also be presenting a scientific poster on Disrupting Clinical Trials ...
Breaking Biology Technology: