Navigation Links
Map predicting spread of avian flu

The 2003 epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Netherlands is the only recent epidemic of HPAI in the developed world. Gert-Jan Boender and colleagues have examined the data from this outbreak and produced a model which can predict the probability of infection from one farm to another; the 'transmission kernel'. They also identify high-risk areas in the Netherlands and analyze various control strategies, concluding that in these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by massive culling of susceptible farms.

For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, one in the central region and one in the south, close to the German and Belgian border (see attached figure). The authors suggest local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic in these areas.

The paper, published in the Open Access journal PLoS Computational Biology, arrives at these conclusions through a computational (or mathematical) modeling method, an approach which has already proved its worth in the analysis of infectious diseases such as the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. The method can estimate the key parameters which determine the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms. These risk maps identify geographic areas in which a given intervention strategy fails to control the spread of the disease between farms. "The risk map concept is an instrument suitable for analyses of epidemic control options both during crisis and in peacetime" says Boender.


'"/>

Source:Public Library of Science


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Mayo Clinic: Gene expression profiling not quite perfected in predicting lung cancer prognosis
2. Anti-bacterial additive widespread in U.S. waterways
3. HIV-1 spread through six transmission lines in the UK
4. Reservoirs may accelerate the spread of invasive aquatic species, researchers say
5. Undesirable expatriates: Preventing the spread of invasive animals
6. Nanobacteria in clouds could spread disease, scientists claim
7. Rabies spread speeds up
8. New understanding of cell movement may yield ways to brake cancers spread
9. VCU Massey Cancer Center study shows enzyme linked to spread of breast cancer cells
10. Industrial contaminants spread by seabirds in High Arctic, new Canadian study shows
11. Past droughts geographically widespread in the West, according to tree-ring data
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:4/6/2017)... Forecasts by Product Type (EAC), Biometrics, Card-Based ... & Logistics, Government & Public Sector, Utilities / Energy ... Nuclear Power), Industrial, Retail, Business Organisation (BFSI), Hospitality & ... for a definitive report on the $27.9bn Access Control ... ...
(Date:4/4/2017)... April 4, 2017   EyeLock LLC , a ... the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) has ... the linking of an iris image with a face ... represents the company,s 45 th issued patent. ... very timely given the multi-modal biometric capabilities that have ...
(Date:3/30/2017)... 30, 2017 Trends, opportunities and forecast in ... by technology (fingerprint, AFIS, iris recognition, facial recognition, hand ... by end use industry (government and law enforcement, commercial ... banking, and others), and by region ( North ... Asia Pacific , and the Rest of ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:10/10/2017)... ... October 10, 2017 , ... San Diego-based team building and cooking events company, ... today. The bold new look is part of a transformation to increase awareness, ... significant growth period. , It will also expand its service offering from its signature ...
(Date:10/10/2017)... research firm Parks Associates announced today that Tom Kerber ... Annual Meeting , October 11 in Scottsdale, Arizona . ... how smart safety and security products impact the competitive landscape. ... Parks Associates: Smart Home Devices: Main Purchase Driver ... "The residential security market has experienced continued growth, and the ...
(Date:10/9/2017)... SAN DIEGO , Oct. 9, 2017 /PRNewswire/ ... a biological mechanism by which its ProCell stem ... of critical limb ischemia.  The Company, demonstrated that ... the amount of limbs saved as compared to ... of the molecule HGF resulted in reduction of ...
(Date:10/9/2017)... ... October 09, 2017 , ... ... journal, Epilepsia, Brain Sentinel’s SPEAC® System which uses the surface electromyography (sEMG) ... tonic-clonic seizures (GTCS) using surface electromyography (sEMG). The prospective multicenter phase III ...
Breaking Biology Technology: