Navigation Links
Map predicting spread of avian flu

The 2003 epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Netherlands is the only recent epidemic of HPAI in the developed world. Gert-Jan Boender and colleagues have examined the data from this outbreak and produced a model which can predict the probability of infection from one farm to another; the 'transmission kernel'. They also identify high-risk areas in the Netherlands and analyze various control strategies, concluding that in these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by massive culling of susceptible farms.

For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, one in the central region and one in the south, close to the German and Belgian border (see attached figure). The authors suggest local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic in these areas.

The paper, published in the Open Access journal PLoS Computational Biology, arrives at these conclusions through a computational (or mathematical) modeling method, an approach which has already proved its worth in the analysis of infectious diseases such as the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. The method can estimate the key parameters which determine the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms. These risk maps identify geographic areas in which a given intervention strategy fails to control the spread of the disease between farms. "The risk map concept is an instrument suitable for analyses of epidemic control options both during crisis and in peacetime" says Boender.


'"/>

Source:Public Library of Science


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Mayo Clinic: Gene expression profiling not quite perfected in predicting lung cancer prognosis
2. Anti-bacterial additive widespread in U.S. waterways
3. HIV-1 spread through six transmission lines in the UK
4. Reservoirs may accelerate the spread of invasive aquatic species, researchers say
5. Undesirable expatriates: Preventing the spread of invasive animals
6. Nanobacteria in clouds could spread disease, scientists claim
7. Rabies spread speeds up
8. New understanding of cell movement may yield ways to brake cancers spread
9. VCU Massey Cancer Center study shows enzyme linked to spread of breast cancer cells
10. Industrial contaminants spread by seabirds in High Arctic, new Canadian study shows
11. Past droughts geographically widespread in the West, according to tree-ring data
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:2/3/2017)... 3, 2017 A new independent identity strategy ... LLP (IdSP) . Designed to fill a critical niche ... market, founding partners Mark Crego and ... just in identity expertise that span federal governments, the ... The Crego-Kephart combined expertise has a common theme born ...
(Date:2/2/2017)... -- EyeLock LLC, a market leader of iris-based identity authentication ... You Should Know About Biometrics in the Cloud ."  ... a growing concern. In traditional schemes, cryptography is used ... schemes such as username/password suffer from inherent weaknesses. ... elegant solution to the problem of high-security user authentication. ...
(Date:2/1/2017)... IDTechEx Research, a leading provider of independent market research, business ... new report, Sensors for Robotics: Technologies, Markets and Forecasts 2017-2027 ... ... Revenues of ... for Robotics: Technologies, Markets and Forecasts 2017-2027: Machine vision, force sensing ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:2/16/2017)... 2017  ArmaGen, Inc., a privately held biotechnology ... severe neurological disorders, today reported preliminary evidence of ... company,s investigational therapy for the treatment of Hurler ... I, or MPS I). The initial results from ... today at the 13 th annual WORLD ...
(Date:2/16/2017)... -- UCHealth ( Aurora, Colorado ) becomes ... patient management. In addition to optimizing care coordination for ... lung, UCHealth looks to improve provider workflow by decreasing ... Stephanie Brown, RN , Thoracic Nurse Navigator, says, ... Excel spreadsheet, which was extremely arduous and susceptible to ...
(Date:2/16/2017)...  Rhythm, a biopharmaceutical company developing peptide ... in life-threatening metabolic disorders, today announced the ... of financing with existing investors including Deerfield ... Associates, Pfizer Venture Investments, Third Rock Ventures, ... Rhythm will use the proceeds to advance ...
(Date:2/15/2017)... , 15. Februar 2017  Trianni, Inc. („TRIANNI") ... Inc. (Janssen) eine Lizenzvereinbarung über die Verwendung der ... führenden Plattform für die Entdeckung monoklonaler Antikörper. ... neuartiges chimäres Gensegmentdesign aus, das Janssen den ... Antikörpern bietet und das für die schelle Isolierung ...
Breaking Biology Technology: