Navigation Links
Map predicting spread of avian flu

The 2003 epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in the Netherlands is the only recent epidemic of HPAI in the developed world. Gert-Jan Boender and colleagues have examined the data from this outbreak and produced a model which can predict the probability of infection from one farm to another; the 'transmission kernel'. They also identify high-risk areas in the Netherlands and analyze various control strategies, concluding that in these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by massive culling of susceptible farms.

For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, one in the central region and one in the south, close to the German and Belgian border (see attached figure). The authors suggest local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic in these areas.

The paper, published in the Open Access journal PLoS Computational Biology, arrives at these conclusions through a computational (or mathematical) modeling method, an approach which has already proved its worth in the analysis of infectious diseases such as the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. The method can estimate the key parameters which determine the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms. These risk maps identify geographic areas in which a given intervention strategy fails to control the spread of the disease between farms. "The risk map concept is an instrument suitable for analyses of epidemic control options both during crisis and in peacetime" says Boender.


'"/>

Source:Public Library of Science


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Mayo Clinic: Gene expression profiling not quite perfected in predicting lung cancer prognosis
2. Anti-bacterial additive widespread in U.S. waterways
3. HIV-1 spread through six transmission lines in the UK
4. Reservoirs may accelerate the spread of invasive aquatic species, researchers say
5. Undesirable expatriates: Preventing the spread of invasive animals
6. Nanobacteria in clouds could spread disease, scientists claim
7. Rabies spread speeds up
8. New understanding of cell movement may yield ways to brake cancers spread
9. VCU Massey Cancer Center study shows enzyme linked to spread of breast cancer cells
10. Industrial contaminants spread by seabirds in High Arctic, new Canadian study shows
11. Past droughts geographically widespread in the West, according to tree-ring data
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:6/27/2016)... Research and Markets has announced the addition ... to their offering. The report ... to grow at a CAGR of 12.28% during the period 2016-2020. ... in-depth market analysis with inputs from industry experts. The report covers ... The report also includes a discussion of the key vendors operating ...
(Date:6/22/2016)... 2016   Acuant , the leading ... has partnered with RightCrowd ® to ... Management, Self-Service Kiosks and Continuous Workforce Assurance. ... functional enhancements to existing physical access control ... with an automated ID verification and authentication ...
(Date:6/21/2016)... June 21, 2016 NuData Security announced today ... role of principal product architect and that ... of customer development. Both will report directly to ... The moves reflect NuData,s strategic growth in its ... high customer demand and customer focus values. ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:12/2/2016)... NC (PRWEB) , ... December 01, 2016 , ... ... US Computational Science Symposium (CSS) and the popularity of US Single Day Events ... take place in early Summer 2018, in Raleigh, NC. Topics of the pharmaceutical ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... ... December 01, 2016 , ... DrugDev believes the only ... a beautiful technology experience. All three tenets were on display at the 2nd Annual ... from over 40 sponsor, CRO and site organizations to discuss innovation and the future ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... ... December 02, 2016 , ... The ... to collaboratively developing improved chemistry, manufacturing and control technologies for the pharmaceutical ... with robust, probe-based sampling. , Online liquid chromatography analysis is becoming ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... --  SurePure, Inc. (OTCQB: SURP) a global leader ... concluded an agreement with Tamarack Biotics under which Tamarack ... acquire units of the Company,s patented photopurification technology with ... Concurrently with the option, SurePure has entered ... seek regulatory approvals in the United States ...
Breaking Biology Technology: