According to Dr. Almogy, accurate modeling of viral dynamics is critical for developing public health policy. Issues such as the use of vaccinations, medications, quarantine and anti-viral procedures will be better informed if we are able to predict more accurately the course of infection.
Taking your vitamin C
More than a research tool, PiggyDemic is also a game (users try to infect as many of their friends as possible), a teaching tool (users make choices that help them live a healthy life), and potentially a method for high-resolution, real-time tracking of virus outbreaks.
"People who have this software can report if they are actually ill," says Dr. Almogy. "If we know who their friends are and the sequence of the infecting virus, we can figure out which virus they have and how it passes from one person to another." If the network is large enough, he explains, they might be able to post warnings of possible outbreaks to Facebook networks, letting people know when it's time for a hefty dose of vitamin C.
The application has already provided a signficant finding, the researchers report. Flu's peak period, winter, is usually attributed to environmental conditions. But the researchers' findings suggest there are other forces at work.
PiggyDemic's viruses are not explicitly programmed to have a seasonal pattern, and yet like the real-life flu, they also display recurrent peaks of infection. Though researchers are not yet certain what drives these periodic peaks in the PiggyDemic eco-system, they indicate that a simple viral strategy superimposed on the basic structure of human society has a strong tendency to display periodic bursts of viral activity regardless of environmental conditions. "The flu doesn't maintain itself at a steady rate of infection," explains Dr. Almogy. "Yea
|Contact: George Hunka|
American Friends of Tel Aviv University