Baanante assumes that only 7% of the diesel trucks in the United States will use urea SCR in 2010the new trucks purchased that year.
"U.S. urea consumption for transportation will probably be the urea fertilizer equivalent of about 210,000 tons in 2010but will be at least double that amount in 2011 and will increase rapidly afterward as older trucks are replaced with newer models that carry urea tanks," Baanante says.
The estimates assume that a liter of the solution weighs about 1 kg and the urea fertilizer contains 46% N, Baanante explains. Thus, 1 kg of urea solution would consume the N needed to produce 0.7065 kg of urea fertilizer. A conversion factor of 0.7065 is used to calculate urea solution consumption in terms of mt of urea-fertilizer equivalent.
"More than 90% of the world's urea production is for fertilizersbut new demands for urea SCR may change that," Baanante says. Urea is also used in animal feed, plastic and glue manufacture, highway de-icing, cloud seeding to induce rain, and tooth-whitening products.
Stringent New EPA Exhaust Emission Rules
Kedzie says that diesel-powered vehicles manufactured in the United States in 2010 can emit no more than 0.2 grams of NOx per brake horsepower hour90% less than current emissions. The new EPA regulations will not apply to vehicles manufactured before 2010.
Tractors, bulldozers, and other non-road vehicles must meet the new EPA standards by 2015. The U.S. timetable for ships and locomotive engines has not yet been set.
"Some trucking agencies are now buying new trucks that were scheduled for replacement after 2010 to avoid the expenses of urea tanks and buying and transporting urea," Kedzie says.
But Thom Albrecht, a transportation equity analyst with Stephens
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