Navigation Links
University of Pennsylvania researchers develop formula to gauge risk of disease clusters
Date:8/16/2007

Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania have developed a mathematical formula to assess whether concentrated disease outbreaks can be ascribed to random-chance events or, instead, suggest a contagious or environmental effect that requires epidemiological investigation.

A feature of the formula is that, given the relevant data, the required probability calculations can be done in less than five seconds on a personal computer.

In statistical terms, the formula gives an exact expression for the probability distribution of the maximum of a number of multinomially distributed random variables. Mathematically, the formula depends on generating function technology developed by Herbert Wilf, professor of mathematics in the School of Arts and Science at Penn. Warren Ewens of Penns Department of Biology joined Wilf in developing the formula. Until now, only potentially unreliable, approximate formulae have been available.

The formula was used to investigate two disease cluster cases.

The first was the classic case of a clustering of eight cases of leukemia in Niles, Ill., in 1956-1960, which was reasonably assessed as a chance, random event. On the other hand, 12 cases of acute lymphocytic leukemia in Churchill County, Nev., in 1999-2001 was assessed not to be a chance event but due to a common, possibly environmental cause.

Multiple cases of non-communicable disease, like leukemia, have clustered in small geographic areas quickly, resulting in costly epidemiological study. The authors note that a purely mathematical calculation cannot answer serious public-health questions, but that they can nevertheless point to cases that appear to require further public health study.


'/>"/>
Contact: Jordan Reese
jreese@pobox.upenn.edu
215-573-6604
University of Pennsylvania
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. University of Manchester makes made-to-measure skin and bones a reality using inkjet printers
2. New protein discovered by Hebrew University researchers
3. Next Generation Body Scanner Launched By The University Of Manchester
4. Roundup®highly lethal to amphibians, finds University of Pittsburgh researcher
5. Green catalyst destroys pesticides and munitions toxins, finds Carnegie Mellon University
6. University of Nevada, Reno research team discovers hormone that causes malaria mosquito to urinate
7. Carnegie Mellon University research reveals how cells process large genes
8. University of Delaware researchers develop cancer nanobomb
9. University of Arizona plant scientists to unravel maize genome
10. Team led by Carnegie Mellon University scientist finds first evidence of a living memory trace
11. University of Utah to help build bionic arm
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:5/3/2016)... , May 3, 2016  Neurotechnology, a ... the MegaMatcher Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS) ... large-scale multi-biometric projects. MegaMatcher ABIS can process multiple ... using any combination of fingerprint, face or iris ... MegaMatcher SDK and MegaMatcher Accelerator , ...
(Date:4/28/2016)... 2016 First quarter 2016:   ... with the first quarter of 2015 The gross margin ... (loss: 18.8) and the operating margin was 40% (-13) ... Cash flow from operations was SEK 249.9 M (21.2) , ... unchanged, SEK 7,000-8,500 M. The operating margin for 2016 ...
(Date:4/26/2016)... 27, 2016 Research and ... Biometrics Market 2016-2020"  report to their offering.  , ... The analysts forecast the global multimodal biometrics ... during the period 2016-2020.  Multimodal biometrics ... such as the healthcare, BFSI, transportation, automotive, and ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/27/2016)... June 27, 2016  Global demand for enzymes ... through 2020 to $7.2 billion.  This market includes ... cleaning products, biofuel production, animal feed, and other ... and biocatalysts). Food and beverages will remain the ... increasing consumption of products containing enzymes in developing ...
(Date:6/27/2016)... ... June 27, 2016 , ... ... findings on what they believe could be a new and helpful biomarker for ... research. Click here to read it now. , Biomarkers are components ...
(Date:6/27/2016)... , ... June 27, 2016 , ... ... for Amgen, will join the faculty of the University of North Carolina ... professor of strategy and entrepreneurship at UNC Kenan-Flagler, with a focus on the ...
(Date:6/24/2016)... , June 24, 2016  Regular discussions on a ... take place between the two entities said Poloz. ... Ottawa , he pointed to the country,s ... the federal government. ... said, "Both institutions have common economic goals, why not sit ...
Breaking Biology Technology: