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Understanding the past and predicting the future by looking across space and time
Date:5/24/2013

lant communities present at locations across eastern North America during the past 21,000 years.

If climate has influenced communities the same way across space and through time, Blois explains, then a model based on the spatial data should make the same predictions as a model based on their temporal data. And in fact, they did.

The space-for-time model explained about 72 percent of the variation seen in their time data, and the remainder is likely due to other biological and environmental factors that the simplified model does not include, Blois says.

Though the testing does not capture all the ways space-for-time substitutions are used in other predictive fields, she says that the results are very encouraging for questions spanning large geographic and time scales scales at which collecting good temporal data can be very challenging.

"We found that at these broad time scales we're looking at, that space does substitute for time relatively well," Blois says. "It makes me more confident in my analyses going forward."


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Contact: Jessica Blois
jblois@ucmerced.edu
209-228-2256
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Source:Eurekalert

Page: 1 2

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