This year, for the first time, Scavia's U-M team was able to forecast the volume of hypoxic water contained in the dead zone. The most likely 2012 scenario corresponds to a volume of 2.6 cubic miles, according to the U-M team.
Scavia, director of the Graham Sustainability Institute and special counsel to the U-M president for sustainability, also released his annual Chesapeake Bay dead zone forecast today. It calls for an average-size dead zone in the Bay this year, down significantly from last summer's record-setter.
"These dead zones are ecological time bombs," he said. "Without determined local, regional and national efforts to control nutrient loads, we are putting major fisheries at risk."
In 2009, the dockside value of commercial fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico was $629 million. Nearly 3 million recreational anglers further contributed more than $1 billion to the Gulf economy, taking 22 million fishing trips.
Farmland runoff containing fertilizers and livestock wastesome of it from as far away as the Corn Beltis the main source of the nitrogen and phosphorus that cause the annual Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone. Each year in late spring and summer, these nutrients flow down the Mississippi River and into the Gulf, fueling explosive algae blooms there.
When the algae die and sink, bottom-dwelling bacteria decompose the organic matter, consuming oxygen in the process. The result is an oxygen-starved region in bottom and near-bottom waters: the dead zone.
"This forecast is a good example of NOAA, USGS and university partnerships delivering ecological forecasts that quantify the linkages between the watershed and the coast," said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco. "While the occurrence of a low-flow year following a year with majo
|Contact: Jim Erickson|
University of Michigan