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Tufts scientists develop new early warning system for cholera epidemics
Date:8/15/2013

the delta from three principal rivers the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Meghna. Unlike the spring outbreak, the fall epidemic is linked to flooding which follows the monsoons and subsequent breakdown of sanitary conditions rather than costal conditions.

In their study, the researchers correlated cholera incidence from the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh from 1997 to 2010 with satellite imaging data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for the same time period.

They discovered a relationship between SWM index measurements taken in early winterfrom October to Decemberand the severity of cholera epidemics in the following spring. "In short, the index for chlorophyll along with readings for other biological matter in early winter indicated severity of cholera incidences in the spring," says Jutla.

The SWM is a more accurate predictor of cholera than the algorithm that measures strictly chlorophyll levels because it also measures a broader range of organic matter, says Islam.

"The probability for error in this index-based estimate is less than 10 percent while the error in using the chlorophyll-based algorithm is about 30 percent," says Islam. To validate their hypothesis that the index can be used in coastal areas outside of the Bengal Delta, the team applied the SWM to coastal waters around Mozambique's capital city, Maputo.

Additional authors on this paper are Abu Syed Golam Faruque, and Rita Colwell of the Center for Bioinformatics and Computational Biology at the University of Maryland, and Anwar Huq of the Maryland Pathogenic Research Institute at the University of Maryland. Another member of the team, Ali Shafqat Akanda, was with the Center for Bioinformatics and Computational Biology at UM and is now on the faculty at the University of Rhode Island. He was a doctoral student at Tufts during the research.

In a separate paper that was published online in
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Contact: Alexander Reid
Alexander.reid@tufts.edu
617-627-4173
Tufts University
Source:Eurekalert

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