Navigation Links
Study predicts large regional changes in farmland area
Date:3/25/2011

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. The effects of climate change and population growth on agricultural land area vary from region to region, according to a new study by University of Illinois researchers.

Regions with relative high latitudes China, Russia and the U.S. could see a significant increase in arable land in coming years, but Africa, Europe and India and South America could lose land area.

Civil and environmental engineering professor Ximing Cai and graduate student Xiao Zhang published their findings in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

While most other studies of climate change and agriculture have focused on projected crop yields, the Illinois researchers assessed global and regional land availability. Using international land and climate datasets and remote-sensing land-use maps, they systematically studied worldwide changes in soil temperature and humidity with a resolution of one square kilometer.

"This study presents the main patterns and trends of the distribution of potential arable land and the possible impacts of climate change from a biophysical perspective," Cai said. "The possible gains and losses of arable land in various regions worldwide may generate tremendous impacts in the upcoming decades upon regional and global agricultural commodity production, demand and trade, as well as on the planning and development of agricultural and engineering infrastructures."

Cai and Zhang's model allowed them to address the many sources of uncertainty in trying to predict climate change, such as levels of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model uncertainty and ambiguity in land-use classification. They applied the model to several projected scenarios to uncover both regional and global trends in land availability.

When considering effects of climate change, residential sprawl as population grows and natural conservation, the global total of potential arable land in all scenarios decreased by the end of the 21st century, by a margin of 0.8 to 4.4 percent. However, much larger changes were predicted regionally. For example, arable land area could increase by 37 to 67 percent in Russia, while Africa could lose up to 18 percent of its farmland.

"Although the magnitudes of the projected changes vary by scenario, the increasing or decreasing trends in arable land area are regionally consistent," Cai said.

Next, the researchers will conduct more detailed regional studies to confirm their global findings. They hope to use their projections to evaluate world food production, demand and trade, and the corresponding implications for policies and investments.


'/>"/>

Contact: Liz Ahlberg
eahlberg@illinois.edu
217-244-1073
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Source:Eurekalert  

Related biology news :

1. Long-term study shows effect of climate change on animal diversity
2. £2 million study to reveal workings of dementia genes
3. New study looks to define evangelicals and how they affect polling
4. CU-Boulder study suggests air quality regulations miss key pollutants
5. Researchers study acoustic communication in deep-sea fish
6. Study reveals homeowner perceptions in fire-prone areas
7. Researchers study how pistachios may improve heart health
8. Study: urban black bears live fast, die young
9. New study indicates link between weight gains during pregnancy and dieting history
10. Study reveals specific gene in adolescent men with delinquent peers
11. Sweat it out: UH study examines ability of sweat patches to monitor bone loss
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
Study predicts large regional changes in farmland area
(Date:3/23/2017)... -- Research and Markets has announced the addition of ... Industry Forecast to 2025" report to their offering. ... The Global Vehicle Anti-Theft ... 8.8% over the next decade to reach approximately $14.21 billion by ... and forecasts for all the given segments on global as well ...
(Date:3/22/2017)... , March 21, 2017 Vigilant Solutions ... serving law enforcement agencies, announced today the appointment of ... director of public safety business development. Mr. ... enforcement experience, including a focus on the aviation transportation ... most recent position, Mr. Sheridan served as the Aviation ...
(Date:3/16/2017)... CeBIT 2017 - Against identity fraud with DERMALOG solutions "Made in Germany ... ... one project, multi-biometric solutions provide a crucial contribution against identity fraud. (PRNewsFoto/Dermalog Identification Systems) ... Used combined in one project, multi-biometric solutions provide a crucial contribution ... ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/14/2017)... ... June 14, 2017 , ... The newest company to join ... antibodies using rabbits that express human genes. ATGC, a spin out of the University ... 2015, ATGC is a translational genomics company. Its founders are among the first ...
(Date:6/14/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... June 13, ... ... a holistic approach for understanding the phenotype of an organism on a ... sample throughput and complicated data processing remain major bottlenecks to biomarker discovery ...
(Date:6/13/2017)... ... June 13, 2017 , ... ... flexible materials, has chosen The Copley Consulting Group to facilitate and deploy ... is aligning its manufacturing operations and strategic initiatives to increasing customer demands. ...
(Date:6/13/2017)... ... June 13, 2017 , ... ... the American Chemical Society (ACS) Green Chemistry Institute’s 21st Annual Green ... Dr. Feehery will address other business leaders, policy makers, educators, students and professionals ...
Breaking Biology Technology: