Navigation Links
Study explores the role of uncertainty in infectious disease modelling
Date:10/21/2013

Research by scientists at the University of Liverpool has found that greater consideration of the limitations and uncertainties present in every infectious disease model would improve its effectiveness/usefulness and value.

Infectious disease dynamical modelling plays a central role in planning for outbreaks of human and livestock diseases, in projecting how they might progress and guiding and informing policy responses.

Modelling is commissioned by governments or may be developed independently by researchers. It has been used to inform policy decisions for human and animal diseases such as SARS, H1N1 swine influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and is being used to inform action in the campaign to control bovine TB.

In a study published in PLOS One, researchers analysed scientific papers, interviews, policies, reports and outcomes of previous infectious diseases outbreaks in the UK to ascertain the role uncertainties played in previous models and how these were understood by both the designers of the model and the users of the model.

They found that many models used to respond to epidemics provided only cursory reference to the uncertainties of the information and data or the parameters used. Whilst the models were uncertain many still informed action.

Dr Rob Christley, from the University's Institute of Infection and Global Health, said: "It is accepted that models will never be able to predict 100% the size, shape or form of an outbreak and it is recognised that a level of uncertainty always exists in modelling. However, modellers often fear detailed discussion of this uncertainty will undermine the model in the eyes of policy makers.

"This study found that the uncertainties and limitations of a model are sometimes hidden and sometimes revealed, and that which occurs is context dependent.

"Whilst it isn't possible to calculate the level of uncertainty, a better understanding and communication of the model's limitations is needed and could lead to better policy."

A model is produced by individuals who have to decide what is important and need to bring together data and information which could include population data, age of population, proximity, type of disease. Uncertainty can occur at all stages of the process from weaknesses in the quality and type of data used, assumptions made about the infectious agent itself, and about the world in which the disease is circulating, all the way through to the technical aspects of the model.


'/>"/>

Contact: Sarah Stamper
sarah.stamper@liv.ac.uk
01-517-943-044
University of Liverpool
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Clean living is a luxury wild animals cant afford, study suggests
2. Study puts freshwater biodiversity on the map for planners and policymakers
3. What makes us left or right handed? New study rules out strong genetic factors
4. Study: Acidity can change cell membrane properties
5. Leading Pharma Company Selects Clinilabs to Conduct a Phase 1 Study of an Investigational Type 2 Diabetes Medication
6. $1.5 million NCI Grant to aid Huntsman Cancer Institute researcher study melanoma, sun damage link
7. Study finds steroids may persist longer in the environment than expected
8. New study offers hope for halting incurable citrus disease
9. Global study reveals new hotspots of fish biodiversity
10. Family Resiliency Center helps study how food-bank clients afford basic non-food items
11. New CU-Boulder-led study finds microbial clock may help determine time of death
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:1/6/2017)... , Jan. 6, 2017  Privately-held CalciMedica, Inc., ... in healthy volunteers of a novel calcium release-activated ... acute pancreatitis. Acute pancreatitis, sudden ... mild disorder, but can be very serious.  In severe ... sepsis, where extended hospital stays, time in the ...
(Date:1/4/2017)... , Jan. 4, 2017  CES 2017 – ... biometric sensor technology, today announced the launch of ... sensor systems, the highly-accurate biometric sensor modules that ... biometric technology, experience and expertise. The two new ... designed specifically for hearables, and Benchmark BW2.0, a ...
(Date:12/20/2016)... 2016 The rising popularity of mobility ... is stoking significant interest in keyless access systems. ... low energy (BLE), biometrics and near-field communication (NFC) ... of wireless technologies in the automotive industry. This ... access systems opens the market to specialist companies ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:1/24/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... January 24, 2017 , ... ... commercially available malaria Plasmodium falciparum culture panels with standard concentrations of histidine rich ... are available in a range of concentrations from six different malaria strains, are ...
(Date:1/24/2017)... ... 2017 , ... The Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, ... career nominees for the 2017 New Innovator in Food and Agriculture Research Award. ... in which one in nine people suffers from hunger. The Foundation for Food ...
(Date:1/24/2017)... CORAL GABLES, Fla. , Jan. 23, 2017 ... interdisciplinary network focused on scientific discovery and solutions, ... is creating the Frost Institutes for Science and ... technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) to help solve ... University of Miami President Julio Frenk ...
(Date:1/24/2017)... -- Today, the Fisher Center for Alzheimer,s Research Foundation is ... that could lead to the development of effective drugs ... groundbreaking research was conducted by the Fisher Center scientists ... Paul Greengard , in the quest to find ... scientists have linked a mutation that protects elderly people ...
Breaking Biology Technology: