Navigation Links
Significant sea-level rise in a 2-degree warming world
Date:6/24/2012

The study is the first to give a comprehensive projection for this long perspective, based on observed sea-level rise over the past millennium, as well as on scenarios for future greenhouse-gas emissions.

"Sea-level rise is a hard to quantify, yet critical risk of climate change," says Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics and Wageningen University, lead author of the study. "Due to the long time it takes for the world's ice and water masses to react to global warming, our emissions today determine sea levels for centuries to come."

Limiting global warming could considerably reduce sea-level rise

While the findings suggest that even at relatively low levels of global warming the world will have to face significant sea-level rise, the study also demonstrates the benefits of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. Limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius and subsequent temperature reductions could halve sea-level rise by 2300, compared to a 2-degree scenario. If temperatures are allowed to rise by 3 degrees, the expected sea-level rise could range between 2 and 5 metres, with the best estimate being at 3.5 metres.

The potential impacts are significant. "As an example, for New York City it has been shown that one metre of sea level rise could raise the frequency of severe flooding from once per century to once every three years," says Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, co-author of the study. Also, low lying deltaic countries like Bangladesh and many small island states are likely to be severely affected.

Sea-level rise rate defines the time for adaptation

The scientists further assessed the rate of sea-level rise. The warmer the climate gets, the faster the sea level climbs. "Coastal communities have less time to adapt if sea-levels rise faster," Rahmstorf says.

"In our projections, a constant level of 2-degree warming will sustain rates of sea-level rise twice as high as observed today, until well after 2300," adds Schaeffer, "but much deeper emission reductions seem able to achieve a strong slow-down, or even a stabilization of sea level over that time frame."

Building on data from the past

Previous multi-century projections of sea-level rise reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were limited to the rise caused by thermal expansion of the ocean water as it heats up, which the IPCC found could reach up to a metre by 2300. However, this estimate did not include the potentially larger effect of melting ice, and research exploring this effect has considerably advanced in the last few years. The new study is using a complementary approach, called semi-empirical, that is based on using the connection between observed temperature and sea level during past centuries in order to estimate sea-level rise for scenarios of future global warming.

"Of course it remains open how far the close link between temperature and global sea level found for the past will carry on into the future," says Rahmstorf. "Despite the uncertainty we still have about future sea level, from a risk perspective our approach provides at least plausible, and relevant, estimates."


'/>"/>
Contact: Mareike Schodder
press@pik-potsdam.de
0049-331-288-2507
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. New study: Snacking on raisins significantly reduces overall post-meal blood sugar levels
2. New understanding of terrestrial formation has significant and far reaching future implications
3. John Theurer Cancer Center presents significant blood cancer research at 2012 ASCO Annual Meeting
4. In protein folding, internal friction may play a more significant role than previously thought
5. 23andMe identifies 5 significant genetic associations for hypothyroidism
6. Interventional radiologists see significant symptom relief in MS patients
7. Ice sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Boelling warming 14,600 years ago
8. New research lowers past estimates of sea-level rise
9. Ancient global warming allowed greening of Antarctica
10. Earths water cycle intensifying with atmospheric warming
11. Global warming refuge discovered near at-risk Pacific island nation of Kiribati
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:5/20/2016)... -- VoiceIt is excited to announce its new marketing ... working together, VoiceIt and VoicePass will offer an ... slightly different approaches to voice biometrics, collaboration between ... Both companies ... "This marketing and technology partnership allows VoiceIt ...
(Date:4/28/2016)... BANGALORE, India , April 28, 2016 /PRNewswire/ ... product subsidiary of Infosys (NYSE: INFY ), and ... global partnership that will provide end customers with ... banking and payment services.      (Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130122/589162 ... area for financial services, but it also plays a fundamental ...
(Date:4/15/2016)...  A new partnership announced today will help ... in a fraction of the time it takes ... life insurance policies to consumers without requiring inconvenient ... Diagnostics, rapid testing (A1C, Cotinine and HIV) and ... weight, pulse, BMI, and activity data) available at ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:5/25/2016)... ... May 25, 2016 , ... The ... fracture-specific plating options designed to address fractures of the distal tibia and fibula. ... The Acumed Ankle Plating System 3 is composed of seven plate families that ...
(Date:5/25/2016)... ... 2016 , ... Lady had been battling arthritis since the age of two ... knee. Lady’s owner Hannah sought the help of Dr Jeff Christiansen of Superior ... cruciate ligament and help with the pain of Lady’s arthritis. Dr Christiansen suggested that ...
(Date:5/24/2016)... ... 24, 2016 , ... Media Cybernetics, global image analysis leader, ... branding reflects a results-driven revitalization for a company with a renewed focus on ... a crisp, refreshed logo and a new web presence. , “I believe that ...
(Date:5/23/2016)... LONDON , May 23, 2016 ... Boost Efficiency by 40% - Frontage Implement a Single ... Enforce Quality, Compliance and Traceability Within the Bioanalytical lab ... the United States and China ... deployed across its laboratory facilities. In addition to serving as the ...
Breaking Biology Technology: