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Scientists link climate change and Atlantic croaker fishery
Date:3/24/2010

of the first attempts to link a group of general circulation models to fish population models. The outputs from 14 GCM models are all consistent, so we have confidence in our long-term forecasts."

This approach could be used for other species where an environmental link to population dynamics is established.

"Most stock assessments that inform fishery management decisions do not include the effect of a changing environment because they are conducted annually or every few years and do not provide a long-term view," said Hare. "Understanding and quantifying the effect of climate change on populations, in combination with the effect of exploitation, is a major challenge to rebuilding and maintaining sustainable fisheries in the coming decades."

Another challenge is developing climate models that forecast on shorter timer scales than the current 50 to100 years.

"Fishery management does not operate on these long time scales, and shorter-term forecasts are required," Hare said. "In the future, a range of climate forecasts that include both the effects of fishing and climate on fish populations over time intervals of 5 to 20 years, 20 to 50 years and 50 to 100 years could be provided. These kinds of coupled models will help provide the best scientific advice for managing fisheries under changing climate conditions in the future."


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Contact: Shelley Dawicki
Shelley.Dawicki@noaa.gov
508-495-2378
NOAA Fisheries Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Source:Eurekalert

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