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Risk of Amazon rainforest dieback is higher than IPCC projects
Date:10/21/2013

ng the wet season. The soil can only hold so much water and the rest runs off. The water stored in the soil at the end of the wet season is all that the rainforest trees have to last them through the dry season. The longer the dry season lasts, regardless of how wet the wet season was, the more stressed the trees become and the more susceptible they are to fire.

The researchers say the most likely explanation for the lengthening dry season in the southern Amazon in recent decades is human-caused greenhouse warming, which inhibits rainfall in two ways. First, it makes it harder for warm, dry air near the surface to rise and freely mix with cool, moist air above. And second, it blocks cold front incursions from outside the tropics that could trigger rainfall. The climate models used by the IPCC do a poor job representing these processes, which might explain why they project only a slightly longer Amazonian dry season, says Fu.

The Amazon rainforest normally removes the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but during a severe drought in 2005, it released 1 petagram of carbon (about one-tenth of annual human emissions) to the atmosphere. Fu and her colleagues estimate that if dry seasons continue to lengthen at just half the rate of recent decades, the Amazon drought of 2005 could become the norm rather than the exception by the end of this century.

"Because of the potential impact on the global carbon cycle, we need to better understand the changes of the dry season over southern Amazonia," says Fu.

Some scientists have speculated that the combination of longer dry seasons, higher surface temperatures and more fragmented forests resulting from ongoing human-caused deforestation could eventually convert much of southern Amazonia from rainforest to savanna.

Earlier studies have shown that human-caused deforestation in the Amazon can alter rainfall patterns. But the researchers didn't see a strong signal of defore
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Contact: Marc Airhart
mairhart@jsg.utexas.edu
512-471-2241
University of Texas at Austin
Source:Eurekalert  

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