Navigation Links
Researchers devise computer model for projecting severity of flu season
Date:12/8/2010

Researchers have developed a statistical model for projecting how many people will get sick from seasonal influenza based on analyses of flu viruses circulating that season. The research, conducted by scientists at the National Institutes of Health, appears today in the open-access publication PLoS Currents: Influenza.

Building on other research that has shown that severity of infections with the Influenza A virus is related to its novelty (i.e., how much the virus has changed, or mutated, from prior seasons), the study evaluated the correlation between virus novelty and the epidemiologic severity of influenza from the 1993/1994 flu season through the 2008/2009 season. Virus novelty was assessed through analysis of genetic data (sequences of hemagglutinin proteins from virus samples) and serological data (hemagglutinin inhibition results). The research focused on H3N2 influenza, the influenza subtype responsible for the most severe influenza seasons during inter-pandemic periods.

The results showed that more than 90% of the variation in influenza severity over the periods studied could be explained by the novelty of the virus' hemagglutinin protein.

The researchers also assessed whether influenza sequence and serological data for viruses isolated in the Southern Hemisphere influenza season correlated with influenza severity that occurred in the later influenza season in the Northern Hemisphere. Results showed that the projections explained 66% of the variance in severity in the Northern Hemisphere.

The ability to accurately predict influenza severity suggests that with appropriate surveillance methods, scientists could make more informed decisions in planning for influenza, including the selection of vaccines. For example, in selecting a vaccine for the coming season, it would be helpful to know that one circulating virus in the current season was likely to produce much more severe influenza than the other circulating viruses.

Edward Holmes (The Pennsylvania State University), an expert on the evolution of flu viruses, and one of the Editors of PLoS Currents: Influenza commented: "this paper represents a major step forward in our ability to predict the behavior of influenza and simultaneously opens up a new field of study".


'/>"/>

Contact: David Lipman
lipman@ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
301-435-5985
Public Library of Science
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. NC State researchers get to root of parasite genome
2. Researchers find animal with ability to survive climate change
3. Researchers find an essential gene for forming ears of corn
4. Researchers note differences between people and animals on calorie restriction
5. Researchers study acoustic communication in deep-sea fish
6. Researchers discover that growing up too fast may mean dying young in honey bees
7. Researchers study how pistachios may improve heart health
8. UI researchers find potentially toxic substance present in Chicago air
9. Researchers develop new self-training gene prediction program for fungi
10. Case Western Reserve University researchers track Chernobyl fallout
11. Childrens National researchers develop novel anti-tumor vaccine
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:11/19/2016)... Securus Technologies, a leading provider of civil and criminal ... monitoring, announced today that it has offered a challenge ... technology judge determine who has the largest and best ... platform, and the best customer service. "ICSolutions ... we do – which clearly is not the case ...
(Date:11/17/2016)... that it has just released a new white paper authored by Zettar that covers ... data transfer storage solutions. Photo - http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20161116/440463 ... ... ... Setting up a high performance computing or HPC system can be a complicated ...
(Date:11/15/2016)... 15, 2016  Synthetic Biologics, Inc. (NYSE MKT: ... on the gut microbiome, today announced the pricing ... of its common stock and warrants to purchase ... price to the public of $1.00 per share ... from the offering, excluding the proceeds, if any ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:12/4/2016)... CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and ... 2016 SystemOne, a company focused on ... for the developing world, and Daktari Diagnostics, a ... with its portable and ultrasensitive immunoassay-based CarePlatform™, today ... and license agreement to integrate Daktari,s technology platform ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... 2, 2016 CytRx Corporation (NASDAQ: ... in oncology, today announced the appointment of Earl ... consultant, and private healthcare investor, to its Board of ... with clinical and strategic experience at the highest level," ... CEO. "As one of the world,s leading orthopedic surgeons, ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... ... December 01, 2016 , ... ... (CSS) and the popularity of US Single Day Events (SDE) to organize a ... Summer 2018, in Raleigh, NC. Topics of the pharmaceutical and life sciences industry ...
(Date:12/2/2016)... ... December 02, 2016 , ... Robots will storm the Prudential Center in Boston, ... The event, which is held on the United Nations International Day of Persons with ... into the workplace. Suitable Technologies is partnering with NTI to showcase how technology can ...
Breaking Biology Technology: