The NAP meeting is a collaborative effort organized by CCAFS and Kenya's agriculture and environment ministries. It is the first in what is expected to be a series of consultations to consider how Kenya should proactively deal with food production challenges and opportunities presented by climate change. It is attracting representatives from government, farmer organizations, research institutes, agriculture-oriented industries, and civil society groups who are seeking consensus on agriculture-related actions to be included in Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP).
Crop models reveal opportunities for Kenyan agriculture
Predictions produced in the analysis of how climate change will affect farming in Kenya employed data from four different climate models to assess the impact on crop yields at over 6,000 locations.
One model revealed a potentially worrisome scenario: rising temperatures could make maize production impractical in parts of the Rift Valley Province and cause yields in Coast Province to fall as much as 25 percent. Another model offered a very different scenario. It showed growing conditions actually improving throughout the country, boosting maize yields everywhere, "including large areas with a yield increase of more than 25 percent." Notably, all models showed rainfall increasing in certain arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya, such as Kitui, Samburu and Isiolo counties, which would allow maize to be grown in places that previously have been too dry to support the crop. Also, models showed that some areas in higher elevations, which may have been too cold for maize to thrive in the past, would be warm enough for maize to grow in the future.
"Despite the uncertainties, the science clearly shows us that big ch
|Contact: Michelle Geis