Navigation Links
New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns
Date:3/18/2014

COLUMBIA, Mo. The world's oceans cover more than 72 percent of the earth's surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate and weather patterns. However, accurately predicting the condition of the ocean is limited by current methods. Now, researchers at the University of Missouri have applied complex statistical models to increase the accuracy of ocean forecasting that can influence the ways in which forecasters predict long-range events such as El Nińo and the lower levels of the ocean food chainone of the world's largest ecosystems.

"The ocean really is the most important part of the world's environmental system because of its potential to store carbon and heat, but also because of its ability to influence major atmospheric weather events such as droughts, hurricanes and tornados," said Chris Wikle, professor of statistics in the MU College of Arts and Science. "At the same time, it is essential in producing a food chain that is a critical part of the world's fisheries."

The vastness of the world's oceans makes predicting its changes a daunting task for oceanographers and climate scientists. Scientists must use direct observations from a limited network of ocean buoys and ships combined with satellite images of various qualities to create physical and biological models of the ocean. Wikle and Ralph Milliff, a senior research associate at the University of Colorado, adopted a statistical "Bayesian hierarchical model" that allows them to combine various sources of information as well as previous scientific knowledge. Their method helped improve the prediction of sea surface temperature extremes and wind fields over the ocean, which impact important features such as the frequency of tornadoes in tornado alley and the distribution of plankton in coastal regionsa critical first stage of the ocean food chain.

"Nate Silver of The New York Times combined various sources of information to understand and better predict the uncertainty associated with elections," Wikle said. "So much like that, we developed more sophisticated statistical methods to combine various sources of datasatellite images, data from ocean buoys and ships, and scientific experienceto better understand the atmosphere over the ocean and the ocean itself. This led to models that help to better predict the state of the Mediterranean Sea, and the long-lead time prediction of El Nińo and La Nińa. Missouri, like most of the world, is affected by El Nińo and La Nińa (through droughts, floods and tornadoes) and the lowest levels of the food chain affect us all through its effect on Marine fisheries."

El Nińo is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the western coast of South America and can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean and the U.S. La Nińa is the counterpart that also affects atmospheric changes throughout the country. Wikle and his fellow researchers feel that, through better statistical methods and models currently in development, a greater understanding of these phenomena and their associated impacts will help forecasters better predict potentially catastrophic events, which will likely be increasingly important as our climate changes.


'/>"/>

Contact: Jeff Sossamon
sossamonj@missouri.edu
573-882-3346
University of Missouri-Columbia
Source:Eurekalert  

Related biology news :

1. A new application allows online statistical analysis of gene-expression data
2. Synteract to Host Joint Statistical Meeting Roundtable in San Diego
3. New research helps place modern temperatures into a more complete statistical framework
4. New method for estimating parameters may boost biological models
5. Screening horticultural imports: New models assess plant risk through better analysis
6. Rising heat at the beach threatens largest sea turtles, climate change models show
7. Symposium: Protein-Folding Diseases: Models & Mechanisms
8. 3-D tumor models improve drug discovery success rate
9. Autism Speaks and SAGE® Labs develop rat models for translational autism research
10. Molecular economics: New computer models calculate systems-wide costs of gene expression
11. ORNL researchers improve soil carbon cycling models
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns
(Date:5/20/2016)... -- VoiceIt is excited to announce its new marketing ... working together, VoiceIt and VoicePass will offer an ... slightly different approaches to voice biometrics, collaboration between ... Both companies ... "This marketing and technology partnership allows VoiceIt ...
(Date:5/3/2016)... VILNIUS, Lithuania , May 3, 2016 /PRNewswire/ ... today released the MegaMatcher Automated Biometric Identification ... deployment of large-scale multi-biometric projects. MegaMatcher ABIS can ... and accuracy using any combination of fingerprint, face ... of MegaMatcher SDK and MegaMatcher ...
(Date:4/26/2016)... April 27, 2016 Research ... Multi-modal Biometrics Market 2016-2020"  report to their offering.  ... The analysts forecast the global multimodal ... 15.49% during the period 2016-2020.  Multimodal ... sectors such as the healthcare, BFSI, transportation, automotive, ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... ... June 23, 2016 , ... ... and Mold) microbial test has received AOAC Research Institute approval 061601. , “This ... introduced last year,” stated Bob Salter, Vice President of Regulatory and Industrial Affairs. ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... ... June 23, 2016 , ... ... launch of the Supplyframe Design Lab . Located in Pasadena, Calif., the ... future of how hardware projects are designed, built and brought to market. , ...
(Date:6/23/2016)...  Blueprint Bio, a company dedicated to identifying, protecting ... has closed its Series A funding round, according to ... "We have received a commitment from Forentis Fund that ... meet our current goals," stated Matthew Nunez . ... complete validation on the current projects in our pipeline, ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... Prairie, WI (PRWEB) , ... June 23, 2016 ... ... consultancy focused on quality, regulatory and technical consulting, provides a free webinar ... is presented on July 13, 2016 at 12pm CT at no charge. , ...
Breaking Biology Technology: