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Mercury rising: Greater L.A. to heat up an average 4 to 5 degrees by mid-century
Date:6/21/2012

and Daniel Walton and graduate student Mark Nakamura. Once they recalculated the almost two dozen global models at the local level, the team analyzed the results and integrated them into an ensemble projection to create the forecast for the entire region.

"This is the best, most sophisticated climate science ever done for a city," said Bunje, who is also the executive director of UCLA's IoES Center for Climate Change Solutions.

"L.A. is one of the first cities to get its act together, from the scientists all the way up to the mayor," Bunje said. "Nobody knew precisely how to adapt to climate change because no one had the data until now. These are shocking numbers, and we will have to adapt."

Cutting emissions will reduce but not eliminate warming

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the impact on Los Angeles, Hall said. However, even if the world has unanticipated and perhaps unrealistic success in drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the greater Los Angeles area will still warm to about 70 percent of the currently predicted levels, the study found.

"We looked not only at a business-as-usual scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue but also at a scenario where emissions are curtailed," Hall said. "Even if we drastically cut pollution worldwide, there will still be quite a bit of warming in Los Angeles. I was a little taken aback by how much warming remains, no matter how aggressively we cut back. It was sobering."

"Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region" is the first of five planned studies Hall will conduct for the city and the LARC about how climate change will affect the Southland.

Hall's team plans to develop similarly comprehensive models for local rainfall, Santa Ana wind patterns, coastal fog (including June gloom), and soil moisture, run-off and evaporation.

Preliminary results already show that Santa Ana winds and June gloom will r
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Contact: Alison Hewitt
ahewitt@support.ucla.edu
310-206-5461
University of California - Los Angeles
Source:Eurekalert

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