Navigation Links
Improving crisis prediction, disaster control and damage reduction
Date:9/14/2010

Washington, D.C. (September 14, 2010) -- Some disasters and crises are related to each other by more than just the common negative social value we assign to them. For example, earthquakes, homicide surges, magnetic storms, and the U.S. economic recession are all kindred of a sort, according to a theoretical framework presented in the journal CHAOS, which is published by the American Institute of Physics.

The researchers who developed this framework contend that these four types of events share a precursory development pattern -- a specific change of scale in indicators that can be tracked. They suggest that detecting this pattern could improve crisis prediction.

"Knowing the patterns of extreme events development is pivotal both for predictive understanding of these events and for enhancing disaster preparedness," says investigator Vladimir Keilis-Borok of the University of California, Los Angeles.

Adds his colleague Alexander Soloviev of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "A premonitory pattern common to four complex systems of different nature is probably a manifestation of a certain general feature of complex systems."

To mathematicians who probe complexity, extreme events grow out of the dynamic interplay of indicators representing a complex process. A system may give off signals that deep shift is afoot. A change of scaling is a "premonitory pattern" indicating a coming extreme event. This manifests as a shift in pattern -- large events that were once infrequent begin to occur closer and closer together (similar to the way that the tempo of "Jaws" soundtrack increases in anticipation of a shark attack).

That systems as diverse as an earthquake, surge in homicides, economic recession and magnetic storm can share a developmental pattern is not as surprising as it may at first seem. Systems are deep as well as dynamic: shift happens -- and can, to a large extent, be predicted to save and improve lives.


'/>"/>

Contact: Jason Socrates Bardi
jbardi@aip.org
301-209-3091
American Institute of Physics
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. High blood sugars impact on immune system holds clues to improving islet cell transplants
2. Greatest thing since sliced bread: New data offer important clues toward improving wheat yields
3. Improving livestock productivity in Honduras
4. Improving the odds
5. New patented technology for improving cardiac CTs receives NIH support
6. Improving the degradation of toxic hydrocarbons
7. Lengthening time a drug remains bound to a target may lead to improving diagnostics, therapy
8. Inventor honored for tech improving access to clean water, healthcare, and business development in India
9. Algae advances as a green alternative for improving water quality
10. Improving clinical use of stem cells to repair heart damage
11. A new tool for improving switchgrass
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:12/15/2016)... Germany , December 15, 2016 ... provider, today announced an agreement with NuData Security, an ... forces. The partnership will enable clients to focus on good ... local data protection regulation. ... In order to provide a one-stop fraud ...
(Date:12/15/2016)... Dec 15, 2016 ... Research and Markets has announced the addition of ... The report forecasts the global military biometrics market to ... The report has been prepared based on an in-depth market analysis ... its growth prospects over the coming years. The report also includes a ...
(Date:12/15/2016)... HILLS, Mich. , Dec. 15, 2016  There ... unlocking car doors or starting the engine. Continental will ... in Las Vegas . Through the ... (Passive Start and Entry) and biometric elements, the international ... field of vehicle personalization and authentication. "The ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:1/23/2017)... 2017  Alkahest Inc. ("Alkahest"), a biotechnology company ... and other age-related conditions, announced today that Sam Jackson, ... Medical Officer. In this role, Dr. Jackson will ... Alkahest and serve on the Executive Leadership Team.  ... Executive Director at Dynavax, where he led the Drug ...
(Date:1/21/2017)... Cambridge, MA (PRWEB) , ... January 20, 2017 ... ... and scientific consulting and resource to the healthcare industry ( http://www.gandlscientific.com ), has ... to its expanding team of clinical and scientific consultants and contractors. This is ...
(Date:1/21/2017)... Interpace Diagnostics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: IDXG)("Interpace" ... useful molecular diagnostic tests and pathology services, today ... purchase agreement with three  institutional investors to purchase ... in a registered direct offering.  In a concurrent ... to the same investors warrants to purchase 855,000 ...
(Date:1/21/2017)...   Boston Biomedical , an industry leader in ... stemness pathways, today presented data from two clinical studies ... American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium ... In a Phase Ib/II study of napabucasin – ... stemness pathways by targeting STAT3 – colorectal cancer (CRC) ...
Breaking Biology Technology: