Navigation Links
Foretelling a major meltdown
Date:12/1/2008

BINGHAMTON, NY -- By discovering the meaning of a rare mineral that can be used to track ancient climates, Binghamton University geologist Tim Lowenstein is helping climatologists and others better understand what we're probably in for over the next century or two as global warming begins to crank up the heat and, ultimately, to change life as we know it.

"I think the earth will be a very different place in the next hundred years or so, and that many species will adapt to it and many won't," Lowenstein said. "Humans are supremely good at adapting. But, rich countries will adapt much better than poor countries and other species will have far more trouble coping with environmental change. There are going to be challenges we can't even imagine right now."

Lowenstein's concerns are rooted not in speculation about unprecedented future happenings, but in the scientific discovery and analysis of mineral samples formed during the Eocene Epoch, the warmest period on earth in the last 65 million years.

What Lowenstein and his colleague Robert Demicco at Binghamton University have discovered is that nahcolite, a rare, yellowish-green or brown carbonate mineral, only forms on earth under environmental conditions marked by very high atmospheric CO2 levels. That establishes it as both a marker and a benchmark that can be used by scientists as they consider the likely climatic implications of ever-increasing CO2 levels in our atmosphere today. More specifically, nahcolite suggests that Eocene warming was concurrent with atmospheric CO2 levels of at least 1,125 parts per million (ppm), which is 3 times the current levels of 380 ppm, but not all that much higher than we can expect on earth in the next 100 years or so given generally accepted scientific projections based on fossil-fuel consumption.

Because CO2 is a forcing factor for climate change, increases in its levels can be directly tied to global warming. A greenhouse gas, CO2 absorbs radiation that would normally be reflected out of the atmosphere, helping to ramp up temperatures, melt glaciers and significantly alter ocean currents and weather patterns.

As for steep, projected increases in CO2 levels over the next century, Lowenstein thinks that might not be our only cause for concern.

"If we assume that you and I are both in our 50s, the change in atmospheric CO2 in our lifetime is greater than the rate of any change in at least the last half million years," said Lowenstein, who is particularly concerned about unexpected changes

"Right now, we're on a predictable pace. But there will likely be tipping points, unexpected events that could really change things, so all of a sudden we may get changes in ocean circulation that we never would have predicted, or the tundra may melt. Some unexpected event is going to occur that's going to be more dramatic than the progressive changes that occurred over the last 100 years."

As a scientist, Lowenstein has no doubt that burning oil, gas and coal are fueling global warming and creating, along with environmental degradation, an immediate threat to some species of life on the planet. His opinion is unchanged by those who would point to the earth's ancient hothouse past as proof that natural swings in climate take place with or without human intervention.

Lowenstein said these consequences seem more and more likely without drastic change.

"The glacier on Mount Kilimanjaro has not much time left even now. Many mountain glaciers are going to disappear," he said. "It all depends on how much fossil fuel we burn. But if we keep doing what we're doing now, we will be up to the CO2 levels of the Eocene within another 100 or 200 years."

As Lowenstein points out, although it is difficult to predict how global temperatures over the coming centuries will compare to the Eocene, the "hothouse" world 50 million years ago should serve as a reminder of what global changes are possible.


'/>"/>

Contact: Gail Glover or Ryan Yarosh
gglover@binghamton.edu
607-777-2174
Binghamton University
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Major conference on food Dec. 1-2, 2008
2. Scientists announce major progress towards historic Census of Marine Life in 2010
3. BIO-key(R) Awarded PocketCop(R) Contracts From Major Law Enforcement Agencies
4. Almond pest management team to receive major award at ESA meeting
5. Scripps Florida scientists awarded $1.5M to fight major water and food parasites
6. Major source of radon exposure overlooked at former Ohio uranium-processing plant
7. NIAID scientists to speak on range of infectious disease topics at major scientific meeting
8. International Council for Science launches major research program on natural disasters
9. UC Davis chemical ecologist wins major award
10. Current mass extinction spurs major study of which plants to save
11. Singapore opens Fusionopolis, its second major R&D hub in 5 years
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/29/2016)... March 29, 2016 LegacyXChange, Inc. ... "LEGX" and SelectaDNA/CSI Protect are pleased to announce our ... in a variety of writing instruments, ensuring athletes signatures ... created collectibles from athletes on LegacyXChange will be assured ... the DNA. Bill Bollander , CEO ...
(Date:3/22/2016)... and SANDY, Utah , March ... operates the highest sample volume laboratory in ... and UNIConnect, leaders in clinical sequencing informatics and molecular ... of a project to establish the informatics infrastructure for ... NSO has been contracted by the Ontario Ministry ...
(Date:3/17/2016)... 2016 ABI Research, the leader in ... biometrics market will reach more than $30 billion ... 2015. Consumer electronics, particularly smartphones, continue to boost ... to reach two billion shipments by 2021 at ... , Research Analyst at ABI Research. "Surveillance is ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:5/23/2016)... , May 23, 2016 Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc. ... today announced that its Board of Directors has approved the ... second quarter of 2016. The cash dividend ... July 29, 2016 to stockholders of record as of the ... dividends are subject to approval of the Board of Directors ...
(Date:5/23/2016)... ... May 23, 2016 , ... RoviSys, a leading ... in Aurora, Ohio, has broken ground on a new building in Holly Springs, ... area, this new location solidifies a commitment to business in the region. The ...
(Date:5/20/2016)... ... ... The leading Regenerative Veterinary Medicine Company, VetStem Biopharma ., is proud ... of their own patients with the VetStem Cell Therapy. Each of these veterinarians has ... patients. , The veterinarians are Dr Ross Rich former owner of Cave Creek ...
(Date:5/20/2016)... ... May 20, 2016 , ... The recent recall by ... reported by Food Safety News on May 12, 2016(1), demonstrates the need for faster ... CEO of Baltimore-based biotech firm, PathSensors, Inc. , PathSensor’s latest solution ...
Breaking Biology Technology: