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'Fighting' IED attacks with SCARE technology
Date:12/10/2009

an through the SCARE program publically available data on the locations of IED attacks in Baghdad that occurred over a 21-month period. The locations of IED caches predicted by SCARE were then compared with actual locations of caches found in that region during that time. The predictions usually were within a half mile of actual locations. A paper on these findings was presented during the Third International Conference on Computational Cultural Dynamics, December 7- 8, 2009 (P. Shakarian, V.S. Subrahmanian, M.L. Sapino. SCARE: A Case Study with Baghdad - ICCCD, 2009)

Revealing NUMB3RS

The SCARE software with its logic-based, mathematical algorithms works like something out of the CBS TV show NUMB3RS, a "drama about an FBI agent who recruits his mathematical-genius brother to help the Bureau solve a wide range of challenging crimes in Los Angeles." Like the problems solved through application of logic-based mathematical formulas in the show, SCARE starts from known information to plot out underlying patterns and locations.

And like many of the NUMB3RS episodes, the SCARE mathematical formula is based on abductive logic. Classical deductive reasoning tries to state what follows from a set of facts, while abduction tries to find the best explanation for a set of observations. In this case, the observations are the locations of the IED attacks, together with the ethnic make-up of neighborhoods. The best explanations correspond to the most likely locations for the weapons caches supporting these attacks.

A different type of logic-based computational system and software called SOMA developed by at the University of Maryland actually was cited on a recent NUMB3RS show ("Hydra," Season 6, Episode 5), though the university was not credited. Developed for the Department of Defense, SOMA (Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agents) is a formal, logical-statistical reasoning language. It uses data about past behavior of terror groups to lear
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Contact: Lee Tune
ltune@umd.edu
301-405-4679
University of Maryland
Source:Eurekalert

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