The team evaluated simulations from each of the 20 climate models. The simulations were based on a scenario of moderate growth in greenhouse gas emissions during this century. The moderate growth scenario portrays future reliance by society on a combination of greenhouse-gas emitting fossil fuels as well as renewable energy sources.
The simulations showed a decline in sea ice coverage across a large region by Terre Adlie at key times in the penguin breeding cycle, although they differed in the details.
Jenouvrier used the output from the climate models to determine how changes in temperature and sea ice might affect the emperor penguin population at Terre Adlie, studying such details as how the sea ice was likely to vary during breeding season and how it could affect chicks, breeding pairs, and non-breeding adults. She found that if global temperatures continue to rise at their current ratecausing sea ice in the region to shrinkpenguin population numbers most likely will diminish slowly until about 2040, after which they would decline at a much steeper rate as sea ice coverage drops below a usable threshold.
The authors say that more research is needed to determine whether emperor penguins may be able to adapt to changing conditions or disperse to regions where the sea ice is more habitable.
-----Human reliance on the Antarctic-----
Rising temperature in the Antarctic isn't just a penguin problem, according to Hal Caswell, a senior mathematical biologist at WHOI and collaborator on the study. As sea ice coverage continues to shrink, the resulting changes in the Antarctic marine environment will affect other species, and may affect humans as well.
"We rely on the functioning of those ecosystems," he says. "We eat fish that come from the Antarctic. We rel
|Contact: David Hosansky|
National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research