Uncertainties relating to the assessment of effectiveness of emission reduction measures are considerable. In order to manage these, there is an evident need to develop uniform assessment methods for ensuring that the assumed emission reductions are also achieved in practice.
Significant mitigation of climate change is widely supported globally. Achieving the mitigation targets will require considerable reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. However, widely differing views, particularly of the large economies such as the EU, the United States, Japan, China, Brazil and India, on the allocation among nations and groups of nations of greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations have meant that no breakthrough has been made in international climate policy. Nevertheless, climate policy is being implemented actively in many countries, particularly in the EU, where binding obligations have been set for, among others, reducing emissions and increasing the use of renewable energy sources, especially biofuels. At the same time, climatic effects are becoming an increasingly important factor with regard to the acceptability of various products and services.
The lack of a sufficiently strict and comprehensive agreement on climate increases the risk that emission reductions, for example in the EU, will lead to increasing emissions in countries that have not committed themselves to emission reduction. Taking this carbon leakage into account when assessing the effectiveness of emission reduction measures is challenging, but vitally important. The effectiveness of individual emission reduction measures is highly dependent on solutions directing the markets, such as the implementation of international climate policy.
Soimakallio shows in his study that the emission reductions achieved, for example by increasing the use of biofuels, are considerably uncertain. In biofuel production, direct climatic effects are caused, for example
|Contact: Olli Ernvall|
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland