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Data on life expectancy show many countries clustered in high mortality traps
Date:10/10/2007

ow, that both progress toward improved life expectancy but lack a continuum of change between them. An examination of life expectancy in the early 1960s revealed one group of countries clustered around a life expectancy of 40 years and a second group clustered around a life expectancy of 65 years. By the first half of this decade, the mode of each cluster had moved up by about 10 years. ( Mode is the value occurring most frequently in a series of observations or statistical data.) The authors reject the idea that these changes reflect a simple convergence process, that instead, the data suggest continuous advances within the cluster but that low life expectancy countries seem mired in a mortality "trap." A few countries from time to time seem to escape the trap by rapidly reaching a certain threshold and then leap the gap to the high life expectancy cluster. These observations hold even when excluding the effect of AIDS mortality on countries. The authors suggest consideration of a 'big push' (or transformational) theory of health aid that focuses on helping those countries approaching the low-mortality threshold to bounce into the low mortality cluster rather than providing incremental funding to a larger set of countries.

"With limited resources, the largest health gains may be achieved by focusing on countries near the threshold, where small changes in health status can have large effects on those countries' chances of escaping the mortality trap," they write.

A second paper, by Burton H. Singer of the Office of Population Research at Princeton University and Marcia Caldas de Castro, assistant professor of demography in the Department of Population and International Health at HSPH, argues that sustainable control of schistosomiasis and other water-borne diseases in the tropics will require bridging organizations and communities to ensure human and animal disease surveillance, monitoring the impact of new economic development projects and linki
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Contact: Robin Herman
rherman@hsph.harvard.edu
617-432-4752
Harvard School of Public Health
Source:Eurekalert

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