Current pledges for greenhouse gas emission reductions are inadequate and will further increase the challenge to reach internationally agreed climate targets, according to new research from a global consortium of 13 international research teams coordinated by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK).
In the absence of a global agreement on emission limits, countries instead have made voluntary pledges to reduce their emissions by 2020 with the current negotiations trying to establish international agreements for emissions reductions for the year 2030. The mitigation effort of the 2020 pledges made by countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change would result in significantly higher emissions in 2030 than what would be cost-effective in order to reach the long-term climate targets acknowledged by that treaty, according to a new study by research teams from Europe, Asia and the United States published in the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
"The gap between where emissions are and where emissions would need to be in order to keep climate targets within reach is getting bigger and bigger," says IIASA Energy Program Leader Keywan Riahi, lead author of the paper published today. "Our study brings together the leading research teams in the field to systematically assess the implications of this gap."
The researchers find that adherence to the pledges would result in global emissions between 53 and 61 GTCO2e for the year 2030. While it could still be possible to meet targets starting from those levels, the options for mitigation then become much more limited and much more expensive. The new research examines the long-term implications of the short-term delay: How much would we need to cut emissions
after 2030 in order to meet the 2C target? How much would it cost? What technologies would be needed?
"AMPERE has explored the in
|Contact: Katherine Leitzell|
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis