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Computers can predict effects of HIV policies
Date:7/27/2012

ates among injection drug users that were known to occur in New York between 1992 and 2002.

And they don't just run the simulation once. They run it thousands of times on a supercomputer at Brown to be sure the results they see are reliable.

Future applications

At Brown, Marshall is continuing to work on other aspects of the model, including an analysis of the cost effectiveness of each intervention and their combinations. Cost is, after all, another fact of life that policymakers and public health officials must weigh.

And then there's the frustrating insight that the infection rate, even with four strengthened interventions underway, didn't reduce the projected epidemic by much more than half.

"I actually expected something larger," Marshall said. "That speaks to how hard we have to work to make sure that drug users can access and benefit from proven interventions to reduce the spread of HIV."


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Contact: David Orenstein
david_orenstein@brown.edu
401-863-1862
Brown University
Source:Eurekalert  

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