Navigation Links
Computer models suggest vaccination or culling best to prevent foot-and-mouth disease
Date:1/19/2010

Combining technology and animal health, a group of Kansas State University researchers is developing a more effective way to predict the spread of foot-and-mouth disease and the impact of preventative measures.

The researchers are finding that if a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak is not in the epidemic stage, preemptive vaccination is a minimally expensive way to halt the disease's spread across a network of animals. But if there's a high probability of infection, computer models show that culling strategies are better.

"We are trying to do predictive as well as preventative modeling using a network-based approach," said Sohini Roy Chowdhury, a master's student in electrical engineering. "First we track how the infection is spreading in space and time. Then we try to mitigate that with certain strategies. The novel contribution of this project is that we considered networks in countries like Turkey, Iran and Thailand that don't have a highly built database."

Roy Chowdhury is working with Caterina Scoglio, associate professor of electrical and computer engineering, and William Hsu, associate professor of computing and information sciences. They presented the work in December 2009 at the Second International Conference on Infectious Diseases Dynamics in Athens, Greece.

The researchers used mathematical equations to predict how foot-and-mouth disease spreads over a network of infected herds. In the network, the nodes are places like stockyards and grazing lands where animals are held. They are connected in various ways, such as by animals' grazing movements and by how people and vehicles move among the herds. Hsu said the researchers' goal is to increase the accuracy of models that predict disease spread in these networks over space and time.

In the experiments, the researchers ran up to a week of predictive modeling on a real network and saw how well it matched data from the actual episode. Roy Chowdhury said they also used artificial intelligence-based modules to cross compare the model's accuracy.

The researchers also tested such mitigation strategies as vaccination, culling and isolation to see how they affected the network. In real-world outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease, culling often is presumed to be the best strategy, but Scoglio said their research could shed more light on the effectiveness of this practice.

"It is the hope to properly contain a disease like foot-and-mouth disease that is so infectious while minimizing the economic losses," Scoglio said.

Hsu said this study also could benefit relief workers sent to help contain foot-and-mouth disease. The K-State network models improve upon existing ones, he said, because they consider such factors as wind, animal grazing and human movements between regions, as well as the number of meat markets in an area.

Scoglio's research group has studied disease outbreaks using computer models of networks before, but this project is different in that it considers a specific disease, she said.

Hsu contributed his research in data mining, which seeks to scour news stories and other online public sources and extract information that could offer clues about disease outbreaks. For this project, Hsu's system crawled and analyzed Web articles from news agencies like the BBC and CNN, as well as such sources as disease control fact sheets from universities.

"Just as Google indexes sites based on authoritativeness and looks for hub sites, we also look to start our crawls of the Web from sites like the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention," Hsu said.

At the conference in Athens, Roy Chowdhury also presented a poster on preliminary work the group has done on H1N1 infections. Using temporal models, they generated predictions on when infections would peak and the rate at which they would drop off after that peak. Roy Chowdhury used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The group plans to extend this analysis of the H1N1 epidemic using network-based models.


'/>"/>

Contact: Caterina Scoglio
caterina@k-state.edu
785-532-4646
Kansas State University
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Oak Ridge Jaguar supercomputer is Worlds fastest
2. Georgia State researcher to use $1 million grant to improve computer models for fighting wildfires
3. Trash or treasure? Discarded US computers often get a second life
4. New Iowa State supercomputer, Cystorm, unleashes 28.16 trillion calculations per second
5. Ben-Gurion U. developing new computer techniques to analyze historic Hebrew and Arabic documents
6. Doing what the brain does -- how computers learn to listen
7. New computer simulation helps explain folding in important cellular protein
8. New supercomputer to reel in answers to some of Earths problems
9. Computers aid in cracking deception in plants
10. Brain-computer interface, developed at Brown, begins new clinical trial
11. Computer model predicts brain tumor growth and evolution
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/31/2016)... R.I. , March 31, 2016  Genomics firm ... of founding CEO, Barrett Bready , M.D., who ... members of the original technical leadership team, including Chief ... President of Product Development, Steve Nurnberg and Vice President ... returned to the company. Dr. Bready served ...
(Date:3/23/2016)... March 23, 2016 ... Sicherheit Gesichts- und Stimmerkennung mit Passwörtern ... (NASDAQ: MESG ), ein führender Anbieter ... Unternehmen mit SpeechPro zusammenarbeitet, um erstmals dessen ... wird die Möglichkeit angeboten, im Rahmen mobiler ...
(Date:3/22/2016)... Ontario , PROVO and ... Newborn Screening Ontario (NSO), which operates the ... for molecular testing, and Tute Genomics and UNIConnect, ... management technology respectively, today announced the launch of a ... next-generation sequencing (NGS) testing panel. NSO ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/24/2016)... ... June 24, 2016 , ... While the majority of commercial spectrophotometers and fluorometers ... the 6000i models are higher end machines that use the more unconventional z-dimension of ... beam from the bottom of the cuvette holder. , FireflySci has developed several ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016 /PRNewswire/ - FACIT has announced the creation ... biotechnology company, Propellon Therapeutics Inc. ("Propellon" or "the ... a portfolio of first-in-class WDR5 inhibitors for the ... WDR5 represent an exciting class of therapies, possessing ... for cancer patients. Substantial advances have been achieved ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... 2016  The Biodesign Challenge (BDC), a university competition ... harness living systems and biotechnology, announced its winning teams ... New York City . The ... projects at MoMA,s Celeste Bartos Theater during the daylong ... senior curator of architecture and design, and Suzanne ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. today announced positive ... its complement C3 inhibitor, APL-2. The trials were ... studies designed to assess the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics ... healthy adult volunteers. Forty subjects were ... dose (ranging from 45 to 1,440mg) or repeated ...
Breaking Biology Technology: