Navigation Links
Climate change may create price volatility in the corn market, say Stanford and Purdue researchers
Date:4/22/2012

By the time today's elementary schoolers graduate from college, the U.S. corn belt could be forced to move to the Canadian border to escape devastating heat waves brought on by rising global temperatures. If farmers don't move their corn north, the more frequent heat waves could lead to bigger swings in corn prices "price volatility" which cause spikes in food prices, farmers' incomes and the price livestock farmers and ethanol producers pay for corn.

A study published April 22 in the journal Nature Climate Change shows for the first time climate change's outsized influence on year-to-year swings in corn prices.

Researchers from Stanford and Purdue universities found that climate change's impact on corn price volatility could far outweigh the volatility caused by changing oil prices or government energy policies mandating biofuels production from corn and other crops.

"Frankly, I was surprised that climate had the largest effect of these three influences," said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford's School of Earth Sciences and a fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "These are substantial changes in price volatility that come from relatively moderate global warming."

The study, based on economic, climatic and agricultural data and computational models, finds that even if climate change stays within the internationally recognized target limit of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels, the temperature changes could still make damaging heat waves much more common over the U.S. corn belt.

"Severe heat is the big hammer," Diffenbaugh said. "Even one or two degrees of global warming is likely to substantially increase heat waves that lead to low-yield years and more price volatility."

The researchers calculate that when climate change's effects are coupled with federal mandates for biofuel production, corn price volatility could increase sharply over the period from 2020 to 2040. Increasing heat waves will lead to low-yield years, and government-mandated corn sales to ethanol producers limit the market's ability to buffer against low-yield years.

"By limiting the ability of commodity markets to adjust to yield fluctuations, biofuels mandates work in exactly the wrong direction," said Thomas Hertel, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University who participated in the study.

"Our results suggest that energy policy decisions are likely to interact with climate change to affect corn price volatility, and that the market effect of a binding biofuel mandate is likely to intensify as the climate warms," Diffenbaugh said.

Diffenbaugh and Hertel also explored the potential of farmers to adapt to the changing climate. They found that, unless corn farmers increase their crops' heat tolerance by as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit, the areas of high corn production would have to move northward from the current U.S. corn belt to near the Canadian border in order to avoid excessive heat extremes.

"Our goal was to explore the interacting influences of climate, energy markets and energy policy," said Diffenbaugh. "It is clear from our results that those policy decisions could strongly affect the impacts that climate change has on people. And, importantly, we also identify potential opportunities for reducing those impacts through adaptation."


'/>"/>

Contact: Rob Jordan
rjordan@stanford.edu
650-725-7510
Stanford University
Source:Eurekalert  

Related biology news :

1. Accelerating climate change exerts strong pressure on Europes mountain flora
2. CU research shows warming climate threatens ecology at mountain research site west of Boulder
3. Under climate change, winners and losers on the coral reef
4. Buy coal? New analysis shows purchasing fossil fuel deposits best way to fight climate change
5. Miniature Sandia sensors may advance climate studies
6. Bowman provides strategies to engage public with climate change solutions
7. Impact of warming climate doesnt always translate to streamflow
8. Which plants will survive droughts, climate change?
9. Did climate change shape human evolution?
10. Some corals like it hot: Heat stress may help coral reefs survive climate change
11. Declines in Caribbean coral reefs pre-date damage resulting from climate change
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
Climate change may create price volatility in the corn market, say Stanford and Purdue researchers
(Date:12/15/2016)... 15, 2016  There is much more to innovative ... the engine. Continental will demonstrate the intelligence of today,s ... . Through the combination of the keyless entry ... biometric elements, the international technology company is opening up ... authentication. "The integration of biometric elements brings ...
(Date:12/12/2016)... Dec. 12, 2016  Researchers at Trinity College, ... graphene by combining the material with Silly Putty. The ... pressure detector able to sense pulse, blood pressure, ... spider.  The research team,s findings ... read here:  http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6317/1257 ...
(Date:12/8/2016)... Calif. , Dec. 8, 2016  Singulex, Inc., ... Molecule Counting technology, entered into a license and supply ... serving science. The agreement provides Singulex access to Thermo ... Europe is used to diagnose systemic ... United States to aid in assessing the ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:1/20/2017)... ... January 20, 2017 , ... The two newest companies ... options for patients. Vironika, a spin out from The Wistar Institute, and Sanguis, launched ... space at 3624 Market Street. , Vironika is developing a treatment for a ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... 2017 Research and Markets has announced the ... Cancer Type, Application - Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2014-2022" ... ... market is projected to reach $15,737 million by 2022 from $6,521 ... 2022. Omic technologies segment accounted for more than ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... Basel, Switzerland (PRWEB) , ... ... ... leading provider of advanced software solutions for pharmaceutical research and development (R&D), ... project-based expertise in omic data analysis and interpretation for the rapidly evolving ...
(Date:1/19/2017)... ... 2017 , ... The American Medical Informatics Association (AMIA) today ... Policy. Specifically, the nation’s leading informatics experts, said data sharing plans should be ... recommended that NIH earmark funding for researchers to produce and execute data sharing ...
Breaking Biology Technology: