Navigation Links
Climate change may create price volatility in the corn market, say Stanford and Purdue researchers
Date:4/22/2012

By the time today's elementary schoolers graduate from college, the U.S. corn belt could be forced to move to the Canadian border to escape devastating heat waves brought on by rising global temperatures. If farmers don't move their corn north, the more frequent heat waves could lead to bigger swings in corn prices "price volatility" which cause spikes in food prices, farmers' incomes and the price livestock farmers and ethanol producers pay for corn.

A study published April 22 in the journal Nature Climate Change shows for the first time climate change's outsized influence on year-to-year swings in corn prices.

Researchers from Stanford and Purdue universities found that climate change's impact on corn price volatility could far outweigh the volatility caused by changing oil prices or government energy policies mandating biofuels production from corn and other crops.

"Frankly, I was surprised that climate had the largest effect of these three influences," said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford's School of Earth Sciences and a fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "These are substantial changes in price volatility that come from relatively moderate global warming."

The study, based on economic, climatic and agricultural data and computational models, finds that even if climate change stays within the internationally recognized target limit of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels, the temperature changes could still make damaging heat waves much more common over the U.S. corn belt.

"Severe heat is the big hammer," Diffenbaugh said. "Even one or two degrees of global warming is likely to substantially increase heat waves that lead to low-yield years and more price volatility."

The researchers calculate that when climate change's effects are coupled with federal mandates for biofuel production, corn price volatility could increase sharply over the period from 2020 to 2040. Increasing heat waves will lead to low-yield years, and government-mandated corn sales to ethanol producers limit the market's ability to buffer against low-yield years.

"By limiting the ability of commodity markets to adjust to yield fluctuations, biofuels mandates work in exactly the wrong direction," said Thomas Hertel, a professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University who participated in the study.

"Our results suggest that energy policy decisions are likely to interact with climate change to affect corn price volatility, and that the market effect of a binding biofuel mandate is likely to intensify as the climate warms," Diffenbaugh said.

Diffenbaugh and Hertel also explored the potential of farmers to adapt to the changing climate. They found that, unless corn farmers increase their crops' heat tolerance by as much as 6 degrees Fahrenheit, the areas of high corn production would have to move northward from the current U.S. corn belt to near the Canadian border in order to avoid excessive heat extremes.

"Our goal was to explore the interacting influences of climate, energy markets and energy policy," said Diffenbaugh. "It is clear from our results that those policy decisions could strongly affect the impacts that climate change has on people. And, importantly, we also identify potential opportunities for reducing those impacts through adaptation."


'/>"/>

Contact: Rob Jordan
rjordan@stanford.edu
650-725-7510
Stanford University
Source:Eurekalert  

Related biology news :

1. Accelerating climate change exerts strong pressure on Europes mountain flora
2. CU research shows warming climate threatens ecology at mountain research site west of Boulder
3. Under climate change, winners and losers on the coral reef
4. Buy coal? New analysis shows purchasing fossil fuel deposits best way to fight climate change
5. Miniature Sandia sensors may advance climate studies
6. Bowman provides strategies to engage public with climate change solutions
7. Impact of warming climate doesnt always translate to streamflow
8. Which plants will survive droughts, climate change?
9. Did climate change shape human evolution?
10. Some corals like it hot: Heat stress may help coral reefs survive climate change
11. Declines in Caribbean coral reefs pre-date damage resulting from climate change
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
Related Image:
Climate change may create price volatility in the corn market, say Stanford and Purdue researchers
(Date:3/22/2017)... 21, 2017 Vigilant Solutions , a ... enforcement agencies, announced today the appointment of retired FBI ... public safety business development. Mr. Sheridan brings ... including a focus on the aviation transportation sector, to ... position, Mr. Sheridan served as the Aviation Liaison Agent ...
(Date:3/16/2017)... Germany , March 16, 2017 CeBIT 2017 - Against identity ... Continue Reading ... Used combined in one project, multi-biometric solutions provide ... Used ... Systems) ...
(Date:3/9/2017)... MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. , March 9, 2017 /PRNewswire/ ... 23andMe , the leading personal genetics company, are ... can now provide customers with personalized nutrition plans that ... biometrics, but also genetic markers impacting how their body ... personalized food decision support platform uses biometrics such as ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:3/27/2017)... March 27, 2017 Roka Bioscience, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROKA), ... for the detection of foodborne pathogens,  today announced that ... Company Spring 2017 Convention on March 29 at 9:50am ET. ... Marquis. About Roka Bioscience ... Roka Bioscience is ...
(Date:3/27/2017)...  The global market for clinical laboratory services ... new report from Kalorama Information.  In addition to ... evaluate disease progression, monitor drug treatment and conditions, ... healthcare market research firm,s report, Clinical ... of the medical laboratory industry and the trends ...
(Date:3/27/2017)... 2017  Trovagene, Inc. (NASDAQ: TROV), a precision medicine ... Bill Welch , will be presenting at this ... AM EDT at the Essex House in ... Scientific Officer, Mark Erlander , Ph.D., will also ... The presentation will be webcast live at ...
(Date:3/24/2017)... -- Research and Markets has announced the addition of ... Business Report" report to their offering. ... This report analyzes the Global market ... estimates and forecasts are provided for the period 2014 through 2022. ... The report profiles 25 companies including many key ...
Breaking Biology Technology: