Climate change hastens extinction in Madagascar's reptiles and ...(viously observed. Moreover some of these...)

The results were dramatic. Among 30 species of geckos, skinks, chameleons, and frogs, and controlling for sampling effort, an average shift uphill of 19 to 51 meters (62 to 167 feet) was observed over the decade. When these results were compared with meteorological records and climate change simulations, the movement of animals could be linked to temperature increases of 0.1C to 0.37C (0.18F to 0.67F) over the same decade, which corresponds to an expected upslope movement of 17 to 74 meters (59 to 243 feet). Raxworthy's results are robust because of the diversity of species included in his analyses. These animals come from five different families of amphibians and reptilesnarrow-mouthed toads, mantelline frogs, chameleons, geckos, and skinksmaking it unlikely that a simple phenological change could explain the upward movement. "When you see a general trend across all these groups of organisms, it is likely to be related to a broad explanation like general temperature warming, not something more subtle such as seasonal variation," says Raxworthy.

The direct link between observed movement up mountains, possible extinction, and climate change has consequences for Madagascar's network of national parks. The government of Madagascar is currently planning to set aside 10 percent of its landmass for conservation purposes, and previous research by Raxworthy and colleagues published in Science in April used the distribution of 2,300 species of animals to map the areas of this island nation that provide adequate habitat for all species. "The Malagasy government is creating important new reserves and protecting forests. Sadly, how
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