In the most optimistic scenario, in which global emissions of carbon dioxide return to near-1990 levels by the end of the century and plants are able to move into new habitats within a century, diversity of species in parts of California might actually increase, especially along the northwest and central coast. Nevertheless, diversity in the northern Sierra and in southern California would decrease.
However, such an optimistic outcome is far less likely than more dire ones, Ackerly said. In the higher scenario - the greatest warming, and plants unable to move in the 90- to-100-year time frame of global warming - plant diversity will decrease everywhere by as much as 25 percent, even if no species actually become extinct. Similarly, 66 percent of all endemic species will experience more than an 80 percent reduction in range.
If plants are able to disperse in time to find more suitable habitat, the researchers found that ranges will shift by an average of 150 kilometers (95 miles) under higher climate change, often with no overlap between the old and new ranges. Paradoxically, this may separate species that now live together: Substantial numbers of floral communities may be split up as some species move south and uphill while others move north and towards the coast.
Though the study did not look at the response of invasive or non-native plants to climate change, Ackerly said that they likely will expand their ranges at the expense of natives and endemics. And shifting and shrinking ranges of endemic species likely will affect animal diversity as well. Ackerly noted that range change may separate an animal from its major food source, or a pollinator from its preferred plant.
With the shifting ranges of endemic species, species conservation becomes a moving target, the researchers noted. Brent Mishler, director of the University and Jepson herberia and a professor of integrative biology,
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| Contact: Robert Sanders rsanders@berkeley.edu 510-643-6998 University of California - Berkeley Source:Eurekalert |