Navigation Links
Can you predict how a disease will spread in a population?

How, when and where a pathogen is transmitted between two individuals in a population is crucial in understanding and predicting how a disease will spread. New research has laid the foundation for a new generation of zoonotic disease spreading models, which could allow for more targeted prevention strategies.

By using novel complexity sciences tools the study, published in Physical Review Letters, outlines a predictive model of a spatial epidemic spread in a population of territorial animals.

By quantifying the instances of transmission events, the research team, Dr Luca Giuggioli, Senior Lecturer in Complexity Sciences in the Department of Engineering Mathematics and the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Bristol, and Dr David Sanders and Master's student, Sebastian Prez-Becker, from UNAM, Mexico, have determined the propagation speed of a pathogen based on the knowledge of the demography of a species, the way animals wander and the degree of contagiousness of the disease.

As a large percentage of new and remerging human infectious diseases are of animal origin, models that track how pathogens hop from one animal host to another will help develop more effective control measures that are capable of identifying specific individuals or class of individuals rather than ineffective and costly widespread culling procedures of an entire population.

Dr Giuggioli said: "The research findings have the potential to be applicable to various populations of territorial animals worldwide including in the UK bovine Tb in badgers, which has enormous economic implications for the cattle industry."

Bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in badgers, which affects cattle, the farming industry and has become a political issue, is an example of how the model could be used. Badgers are territorial animals and do transmit the infection by passing the bacterial pathogen to individuals in neighbouring territories, which is what the researchers have quantified in their model.


Contact: Joanne Fryer
University of Bristol

Related biology news :

1. Disease-carrying colonizers on the move: Predicting the spread of ticks across Canada
2. Supplement use predicts folate status in Canadian women
3. Researchers identified a protein useful in predicting the risk of pulmonary metastases in breast cancer patients
4. University of Toronto biologists predict extinction for organisms with poor quality genes
5. Scientists develop new technique that could improve heart attack prediction
6. Striatal brain volume predicts Huntington disease onset
7. Discovery of mechanisms predicting response to new treatments in colon cancer
8. Tufts Medical Center researchers finds marker in premies saliva predicts readiness to feed by mouth
9. Researchers identify genetic markers to predict male fertility
10. Study finds voter genetics may predict election outcomes
11. Math predicts size of clot-forming cells
Post Your Comments:
(Date:10/29/2015)... October 29, 2015 NXTD ... company focused on the growing mobile commerce market ... that StackCommerce, a leading marketplace to discover and ... Wocket® smart wallet on StackSocial for this holiday ... or the "Company"), a biometric authentication company focused ...
(Date:10/27/2015)... , Oct. 27, 2015 Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: ... today announced that Google has adopted the Synaptics ® ... controller solutions to power its newest flagship smartphones, the ... Huawei. --> --> ... Google to provide strategic collaboration in the joint development ...
(Date:10/23/2015)... DUBLIN , Oct. 23, 2015 Research ... of the "Global Voice Recognition Biometrics Market 2015-2019" ... --> --> The global voice recognition ... during 2014-2019. --> ... 2015-2019, has been prepared based on an in-depth market ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:11/25/2015)... , Nov. 25, 2015 /PRNewswire/ - Aeterna Zentaris Inc. ... its business and prospects remain fundamentally strong and ... (zoptarelin doxorubicin) recently received DSMB recommendation to continue ... following review of the final interim efficacy and ... Primary Endpoint in men with heavily pretreated castration- ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... Malaysia , Nov. 24, 2015  Asia-Pacific ... contract research organisation (CRO) market. The trend of ... in lower margins but higher volume share for ... capacity and scale, however, margins in the CRO ... Organisation (CRO) Market ( ), finds ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... ... 2015 , ... Copper is an essential micronutrient that all ... copper is also toxic to cells. With a $1.3 million award from the ... a systematic study of copper in the bacteria Pseudomonas aeruginosa (P. aeruginosa), a ...
(Date:11/24/2015)... , ... November 24, 2015 , ... This fall, global ... competitive events in five states to develop and pitch their BIG ideas to improve ... each state are competing for votes to win the title of SAP's Teen Innovator, ...
Breaking Biology Technology: