Navigation Links
Can you predict how a disease will spread in a population?
Date:2/5/2013

How, when and where a pathogen is transmitted between two individuals in a population is crucial in understanding and predicting how a disease will spread. New research has laid the foundation for a new generation of zoonotic disease spreading models, which could allow for more targeted prevention strategies.

By using novel complexity sciences tools the study, published in Physical Review Letters, outlines a predictive model of a spatial epidemic spread in a population of territorial animals.

By quantifying the instances of transmission events, the research team, Dr Luca Giuggioli, Senior Lecturer in Complexity Sciences in the Department of Engineering Mathematics and the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Bristol, and Dr David Sanders and Master's student, Sebastian Prez-Becker, from UNAM, Mexico, have determined the propagation speed of a pathogen based on the knowledge of the demography of a species, the way animals wander and the degree of contagiousness of the disease.

As a large percentage of new and remerging human infectious diseases are of animal origin, models that track how pathogens hop from one animal host to another will help develop more effective control measures that are capable of identifying specific individuals or class of individuals rather than ineffective and costly widespread culling procedures of an entire population.

Dr Giuggioli said: "The research findings have the potential to be applicable to various populations of territorial animals worldwide including in the UK bovine Tb in badgers, which has enormous economic implications for the cattle industry."

Bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in badgers, which affects cattle, the farming industry and has become a political issue, is an example of how the model could be used. Badgers are territorial animals and do transmit the infection by passing the bacterial pathogen to individuals in neighbouring territories, which is what the researchers have quantified in their model.


'/>"/>

Contact: Joanne Fryer
joanne.fryer@bristol.ac.uk
44-011-733-17276
University of Bristol
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Disease-carrying colonizers on the move: Predicting the spread of ticks across Canada
2. Supplement use predicts folate status in Canadian women
3. Researchers identified a protein useful in predicting the risk of pulmonary metastases in breast cancer patients
4. University of Toronto biologists predict extinction for organisms with poor quality genes
5. Scientists develop new technique that could improve heart attack prediction
6. Striatal brain volume predicts Huntington disease onset
7. Discovery of mechanisms predicting response to new treatments in colon cancer
8. Tufts Medical Center researchers finds marker in premies saliva predicts readiness to feed by mouth
9. Researchers identify genetic markers to predict male fertility
10. Study finds voter genetics may predict election outcomes
11. Math predicts size of clot-forming cells
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:3/20/2017)... March 20, 2017 At this year,s CeBIT Chancellor ... biometrics manufacturer DERMALOG. The Chancellor came to the DERMALOG stand together with ... this year,s CeBIT partner country. At the largest German biometrics company the ... fingerprint, face and iris recognition as well as DERMALOG´s multi-biometrics system.   ... ...
(Date:3/9/2017)... FRANCISCO and MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. ... , "Eating Well Made Simple," and 23andMe , ... help guide better food choices.  Zipongo can now provide ... their food preferences, health goals and biometrics, but also ... certain food choices. Zipongo,s personalized food decision ...
(Date:3/2/2017)... , March 2, 2017 Summary ... better understand Merck KGaA and its partnering interests and ... https://www.reportbuyer.com/product/3605601/ Description The Partnering Deals and Alliance ... partnering activity of one of the world,s leading life ... prepared upon purchase to ensure inclusion of the most ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:3/30/2017)... 2017 Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc. (PGDx) today announced ... Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2017, being held ... The company also announced that five scientists associated with PGDx—two ... Annual AACR Team Science Award. ... Doug Ward , CEO ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... Maryland , and HILDEN, Germany , March 29, 2017 ... FRANKFURT PRIME STANDARD: QIA) today announced the U.S. launch ... JAK2 assay), which was cleared by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ... V617F/G1849T allele in genomic DNA extracted from EDTA whole blood.* ... The ipsogen JAK2 assay is processed on QIAGEN,s ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... 2017 , ... (March 29, 2017) — Nerium International ... an active member of the Mexican Direct Selling Association A.C. (AMVD ). ... relationship marketing. This professional organization fosters loyal and fair competition among companies within ...
(Date:3/29/2017)... ... March 29, 2017 , ... ACEA Biosciences, a ... a quarterly travel award to noteworthy scientists who will be presenting research using ... new round of awards are being given to two postdoctoral fellows studying pathogen ...
Breaking Biology Technology: