Navigation Links
Can you predict how a disease will spread in a population?
Date:2/5/2013

How, when and where a pathogen is transmitted between two individuals in a population is crucial in understanding and predicting how a disease will spread. New research has laid the foundation for a new generation of zoonotic disease spreading models, which could allow for more targeted prevention strategies.

By using novel complexity sciences tools the study, published in Physical Review Letters, outlines a predictive model of a spatial epidemic spread in a population of territorial animals.

By quantifying the instances of transmission events, the research team, Dr Luca Giuggioli, Senior Lecturer in Complexity Sciences in the Department of Engineering Mathematics and the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Bristol, and Dr David Sanders and Master's student, Sebastian Prez-Becker, from UNAM, Mexico, have determined the propagation speed of a pathogen based on the knowledge of the demography of a species, the way animals wander and the degree of contagiousness of the disease.

As a large percentage of new and remerging human infectious diseases are of animal origin, models that track how pathogens hop from one animal host to another will help develop more effective control measures that are capable of identifying specific individuals or class of individuals rather than ineffective and costly widespread culling procedures of an entire population.

Dr Giuggioli said: "The research findings have the potential to be applicable to various populations of territorial animals worldwide including in the UK bovine Tb in badgers, which has enormous economic implications for the cattle industry."

Bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in badgers, which affects cattle, the farming industry and has become a political issue, is an example of how the model could be used. Badgers are territorial animals and do transmit the infection by passing the bacterial pathogen to individuals in neighbouring territories, which is what the researchers have quantified in their model.


'/>"/>

Contact: Joanne Fryer
joanne.fryer@bristol.ac.uk
44-011-733-17276
University of Bristol
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Disease-carrying colonizers on the move: Predicting the spread of ticks across Canada
2. Supplement use predicts folate status in Canadian women
3. Researchers identified a protein useful in predicting the risk of pulmonary metastases in breast cancer patients
4. University of Toronto biologists predict extinction for organisms with poor quality genes
5. Scientists develop new technique that could improve heart attack prediction
6. Striatal brain volume predicts Huntington disease onset
7. Discovery of mechanisms predicting response to new treatments in colon cancer
8. Tufts Medical Center researchers finds marker in premies saliva predicts readiness to feed by mouth
9. Researchers identify genetic markers to predict male fertility
10. Study finds voter genetics may predict election outcomes
11. Math predicts size of clot-forming cells
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:6/14/2017)... June 15, 2017  IBM (NYSE: IBM ) is introducing ... event dedicated to developing collaboration between startups and global businesses, ... 15-17. During the event, nine startups will showcase the solutions ... various industries. France ... market, with a 30 percent increase in the number of ...
(Date:5/16/2017)... 16, 2017  Veratad Technologies, LLC ( www.veratad.com ), ... and identity verification solutions, announced today they will participate ... May 15 thru May 17, 2017, in ... Trade Center. Identity impacts the lives ... today,s quickly evolving digital world, defining identity is critical ...
(Date:5/6/2017)... 5, 2017 RAM Group , ... new breakthrough in biometric authentication based on a ... properties to perform biometric authentication. These new sensors are ... created by Ram Group and its partners. This sensor ... supply chains and security. Ram Group is a ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:9/21/2017)... (PRWEB) , ... September 21, 2017 , ... Dr. Greg ... Las Vegas, NV on September 27th. His presentation is at 12:10pm in the Probiotics ... able to present at SupplySide West and discuss how probiotics have shown impressive data ...
(Date:9/21/2017)... London UK (PRWEB) , ... September 21, 2017 ... ... , a QuintilesIMS company, who enable the world’s most progressive pharma and biotech ... 2,000 clinical trials at top pharma and biotech events in Q4. , DrugDev ...
(Date:9/21/2017)... ... , ... Lajollacooks4u welcomed the San Diego chapter of Les Dames d’Escoffier International ... women with high achievement in the fields of food, fine beverage and hospitality, was ... began with an olive oil tasting to whet their palettes and then rolled up ...
(Date:9/20/2017)... ... September 20, 2017 , ... Cybrexa ... Vishwas Paralkar to the role of chief scientific officer. In this role, Dr. ... to Cybrexa’s president and CEO, Per Hellsund. , “I was impressed with Cybrexa’s ...
Breaking Biology Technology: