Navigation Links
Can you predict how a disease will spread in a population?
Date:2/5/2013

How, when and where a pathogen is transmitted between two individuals in a population is crucial in understanding and predicting how a disease will spread. New research has laid the foundation for a new generation of zoonotic disease spreading models, which could allow for more targeted prevention strategies.

By using novel complexity sciences tools the study, published in Physical Review Letters, outlines a predictive model of a spatial epidemic spread in a population of territorial animals.

By quantifying the instances of transmission events, the research team, Dr Luca Giuggioli, Senior Lecturer in Complexity Sciences in the Department of Engineering Mathematics and the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Bristol, and Dr David Sanders and Master's student, Sebastian Prez-Becker, from UNAM, Mexico, have determined the propagation speed of a pathogen based on the knowledge of the demography of a species, the way animals wander and the degree of contagiousness of the disease.

As a large percentage of new and remerging human infectious diseases are of animal origin, models that track how pathogens hop from one animal host to another will help develop more effective control measures that are capable of identifying specific individuals or class of individuals rather than ineffective and costly widespread culling procedures of an entire population.

Dr Giuggioli said: "The research findings have the potential to be applicable to various populations of territorial animals worldwide including in the UK bovine Tb in badgers, which has enormous economic implications for the cattle industry."

Bovine tuberculosis (Tb) in badgers, which affects cattle, the farming industry and has become a political issue, is an example of how the model could be used. Badgers are territorial animals and do transmit the infection by passing the bacterial pathogen to individuals in neighbouring territories, which is what the researchers have quantified in their model.


'/>"/>

Contact: Joanne Fryer
joanne.fryer@bristol.ac.uk
44-011-733-17276
University of Bristol
Source:Eurekalert

Related biology news :

1. Disease-carrying colonizers on the move: Predicting the spread of ticks across Canada
2. Supplement use predicts folate status in Canadian women
3. Researchers identified a protein useful in predicting the risk of pulmonary metastases in breast cancer patients
4. University of Toronto biologists predict extinction for organisms with poor quality genes
5. Scientists develop new technique that could improve heart attack prediction
6. Striatal brain volume predicts Huntington disease onset
7. Discovery of mechanisms predicting response to new treatments in colon cancer
8. Tufts Medical Center researchers finds marker in premies saliva predicts readiness to feed by mouth
9. Researchers identify genetic markers to predict male fertility
10. Study finds voter genetics may predict election outcomes
11. Math predicts size of clot-forming cells
Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
(Date:1/25/2016)... --  Unisys Corporation (NYSE: UIS ) today announced the ... Airport, New York City , to help ... enter the United States using passports that ... testing of the system at Dulles last year. The system ... January 2016. --> pilot testing of the system ...
(Date:1/22/2016)... 2016 http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/p74whf/global_biometrics ... "Global Biometrics Market in Retail Sector ... --> http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/p74whf/global_biometrics ) has announced ... Market in Retail Sector 2016-2020" report ... Research and Markets ( http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/p74whf/global_biometrics ) has ...
(Date:1/20/2016)... Jan. 20, 2016   MedNet Solutions , an ... spectrum of clinical research, is pleased to announce the ... achievements are the result of the company,s laser focus ... eClinical , it,s comprehensive, easy-to-use and highly affordable ... --> Key MedNet growth achievements in 2015 include: ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:2/10/2016)... LOUISVILLE, Ky. , Feb. 10, 2016 ... company utilizing its proprietary NeXosome® technology for early ... presentation of its most recent study by Dr. ... Hospital at the Society for Maternal Fetal Medicine,s (SMFM) ... , GA, February 1-6 th , 2016.  The presentation ...
(Date:2/10/2016)... York, and New York, New York (PRWEB) , ... ... ... Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: REGN) today announced that it has ... develop new vaccines and immunotherapies for infectious diseases and cancer. , ...
(Date:2/10/2016)...  Allergan plc (NYSE: AGN ) a leading ... , Allergan,s CEO and President, will be featured as ... the RBC Capital Markets Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, February ... York Palace Hotel in New York, NY ... can be accessed on Allergan,s Investor Relations web site ...
(Date:2/10/2016)... ... February 10, 2016 , ... ... states, announced today the promotion of two long-standing principal investigators (PI) to the ... Medicine, Clinical Research and Development. , Dr. Laurence Chu, a Benchmark Research PI ...
Breaking Biology Technology: