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Avian flu variant stalks Egypt
Date:2/7/2014

ry areas: Cairo, Nile Delta, Canal and Upper Egypt. Statistical analysis suggests the northern governorate of Ash Sharqiyah as the point of origin for the spread of H5N1, however, the mathematical association is too weak to claim certainty. Analysis also implied that the strongest transmission routes for H5N1 were from Ash Sharqiyah to Al Gharbiyah and Al Fayyum to Al Qalyubiyah.

Most of the identified routes of transmission appeared in the densely populated Delta region of Egypt. The Al Qalybiyah governate in particular appears to be a popular area for viral transition, though dispersion to and from this region remains uncertain, requiring further research. The study also noted considerable viral diversity over a limited time frameperhaps an evasive response to a country-wide poultry vaccination program.

"This has significant public health implications for the rest of the world," Scotch says. "It is important to focus on variant clades in order to better understand how this virus has evolved and which governorates are propograting its spread."

The authors are further developing the ZooPhy software's graphical interface. The tool requires no specialized knowledge of phylogeography or bioinformatics, making it convenient for field use by public health officials. By zeroing in on trade routes, migration patterns and highways of viral transmission, health authorities can conserve limited resources, applying them where they can be most effective.


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Contact: Joseph Caspermeyer
Joseph.Caspermeyer@asu.edu
Arizona State University
Source:Eurekalert  

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